A question from The Next Frontier:
At this point, a question I'd like to pose to the good folks at Illinipundit.com: I know the majority, if not all, of you folks backed Senator Brady. And I know several of you actually walked out on Oberweis during the Lincoln Day Dinner. And one particular blogger for your site predicted that Brady would beat out Oberweis (which I thought he would, as well). How do you explain Oberweis beating Brady? Was it just the matter of visibility, Oberweis' negative ads, or the Republican voters just not responding to Brady as well as you expected them to?
I thought Brady had some momentum heading into Tuesday, partly out of a backlash against Oberweis' over-the-top negativity and outright lies. But, as we're all prone to do, I forgot that almost nobody pays attention to the news story or the blog post that exposes the exaggeration, fabrication or lie. Most voters see the "headlines" TV ad, but few see the story that the headlines were fabricated. That, I think, was part of why I thought Brady would at least finish second. The other part may have been wishful thinking. I was never an enthusiastic supporter of Brady or Topinka, but I was enthusiastic about "Anyone But Oberweis." I've discussed this at length on here before, but I never really trusted him to do what's best for the Illinois GOP, and I don't really believe he's a conservative.
Also, there are a spate of news stories today about Oberweis' petulant demands for concessions in exchange for an endorsement of Topinka.
Republican governor nominee Judy Baar Topinka's attempt to unify her party following a blistering primary failed Wednesday when foe Jim Oberweis refused to formally endorse her unless she meets certain undisclosed conditions.
If I were Topinka, I'd react exactly as she has, and dismiss the need for his endorsement. One, by acceding to his demands, you're empowering someone who is uncontrollable. Two, I'm not convinced he adds anythign with an endorsement. I think some of his supporters will support Topinka regardless of what he does, and some won't. Their minds are made up about Topinka, and they don't need Oberweis' endorsement to help them decide.
One other thing I'd like to address is this notion that Brady was a Topinka "plant," who only was in the race to siphon conservative votes away from Oberweis.
First, any objective look at the facts of who got in the race, when, and how demonstrates the utter implausability of the theory.
Second, what special claim does Oberweis have to the votes and leadership of Illinois conservatives? I can easily advance the theory that Oberweis was a Topinka plant who was only in the race to siphon conservative votes away from Brady:
- Brady has been active in Illinois GOP and conservative circles much longer than Oberweis.
- If Oberweis had withdrawn in December, endorsed Brady and donated his millions to Brady, Brady would have likely defeated Topinka.
- If they had comparable name recognition, Brady was a much more viable candidate in November than Oberweis. Brady had almost all of Oberweis' positives (the notable exception being the willingness to spend millions of his own and the Roeser's money) and almost none of his negatives.
So, then, I ask these questions:
- Why wouldn't Oberweis do the right thing for Illinois conservatives?
- Why didn't he drop in December and pledge his support and financial backing to Brady?
- By not dropping out, wasn't Oberweis just helping Topinka win the Primary by splitting the conservative vote?
Well said.
Thanks. I've had many of the same thoughts. Somehow Oberweis thought he just automatically should have been the guy. Hopefully, if he really cares about the conservative movement in the state, he'll stop running. I'm guessing he spends about as much time getting signatures for the marriage amendment this year as OJ spends finding Nicole's murderer.
Money talks. As the great Ron Popeil would say, "it's as simple as that."
I think the name recognition helped. Some of the conservatives I talk politics with hadn't heard much on Brady, or at least nothing that really differentiated him from Oberweis. I'd posit that Oberweis benefited from the Lazy Voter Syndrome. Many people recognized the name, saw the ads, and made up their mind early without digging up more information on the other candidates. Of those planning to vote for Oberweis that I talked to, it was usually a matter of 5-10 minutes to convince them to go with Brady instead. I think I was assuming Lazy Voter Syndrome wouldn't have been as big an issue in a Primary, but I'm still a bit young and idealistic.
Some who did dig up the dirt on both still stuck with Oberweis for other reasons, such as the outsider appeal or believing it to be a more pragmatic vote. Seems like if either one had dropped out and supported the other we'd probably have a conservative candidate... but Oberweis supporters would have demanded it be Brady, Brady supporters would have demanded it be Oberweis and both will blame the other for the loss it seems. I don't like Oberweis so I was pretty disappointed at his 2nd place finish with a split conservative vote... seems like he'll have a perfect excuse to run again and split the conservative vote again and be able to blame the other folks all over again.
I hope conservatives can, at least grudgingly, get behind Topinka as the 'lesser evil' candidate. It's hard to believe that they can view her to be worse than Blago or just as bad as I've heard some claim. Their major gripes seem to be on:
1) abortion, which wasn't going to get banned or restricted no matter who was in the Governor's mansion with our legislature
2) gay marriage, which even in our bluish State doesn't seem to be a realistic issue any time soon.
3) guns, which I don't think Topinka will hurt, Blago sure as heck would if he could, but the legislature couldn't even get a concealed carry bill to do anything but die in committee anyways, let alone die on the Governor's desk.
4) taxes, which Topinka has potential to be bad on, but Blago has shown he is definitely bad on, even if it is through fees and other non-income based taxes.
5) social programs, that the legislature would have never killed off even with a conservative Governor, but are far less likely to expand or more likely to allow fraud under Topinka than Blago.
Unfortunately many will huff and puff and refuse to acknowledge that Blago is worse or that pragmatic voting beats handing over the reins to the 'greater evil' candidate. Such is politics, I suppose.
If Oberweis had withdrawn in December, endorsed Brady and donated his millions to Brady, Brady would have likely defeated Topinka.
No, Brady still would have finished third. Would you like to buy a bridge?
Oberweis nearly doubled Brady's number State wide. why would the stronger candidate drop to back the weaker candidate. Iit is the responcabilty of the weaker not the stronger to do what was right for idealogy. Thanks to brady the conservatives will go without.
Why didn't Topinka drop in December and pledge her support and financial backing to Gidwitz?
Brady simply did not spend the $'s needed to get his message out. Also, my wife seems to think that his 2nd amendment stance, which is not unlike all the other canidates, was too prominent. That is a "Turn off" for most of the Burb folks.
"Oberweis nearly doubled Brady's number State wide. why would the stronger candidate drop to back the weaker candidate. Iit is the responcabilty of the weaker not the stronger to do what was right for idealogy. Thanks to brady the conservatives will go without."
No, you are wrong, JC Hagen....dead wrong. Oberweis is a hack who cares little about the conservative movement. He has run as a moderate before, and since he lost once, he ran as a conservative this time around.
Why would Brady, a known conservative who has a bright political future, pave the way for Oberweis, a crony driven by self-interest?
"Get a clue" Oberweis is a conservative, I think i knew the man better than anyone in the east central Illinois area. He is a true conservative.
JC Hagen,
Because of "principled" voters like you who voted for the crony that is Oberweis, this state will always be blue.
Oberweis says "a vote for Brady is a vote for the liberal Topinka." When will you morons realize that a vote for Oberweis (had he won), would have been a vote for Blago.
Was he conservative the other times that he ran?
this state is blue because the conservative never unite around the stronger conservative candidate like oberweis. I was broud to not only vote for Jim Oberweis but also to work for him.
[...] UPDATE: IlliniPundit has a thread going about this now. –Yoshi [...]
When will you morons realize that a vote for Oberweis (had he won), would have been a vote for Blago.
What if Topinka was right, and all of us other Illinois Republicans really are morons?
Four more years!
Get a clue -- is CLUELESS!! and delusional! If you would just bother to read more widely and travel a few miles from home, you would find that Brady sold you out! At the unity breakfast, he gave that pasted smile and said "I've supported Judy all along". Oberweis entered the race determined to clean-up the corruption. Brady entered the race to `cover-up' the corruption. He mislead you into thinking that at the end his numbers were `surging' when in fact they had flat lined 3 weeks ago, and HE KNEW IT! But, had his pro-life pro-family supporters known that then even they would have asked him to drop out.
iwitness2,
Even if Brady had dropped out, I would have not voted for Oberweis if my life depended on it.
i found it interesting that most of Brady's support can in the 15th, and in the rest of the state he fell behind Gidwits
Get a clue -- get help you need it!
I find it rather interesting when a Brady supporter calls Oberweis a Moderate but then they are the first to say "thinka Topinka". True conservatives would care less about the governors race and more about the future of the conservative party.
Get a clue -- how sad. Maybe your `life' didn't depend on it; but so many of the unborn did!
Gordy,
First of all, thanks for the response. Now I know somebody actually reads the blog...
But another question, pigging off of what JC Hagen said:
Again, is this a matter of visibility/familiarity? Just because Oberweis is at least known throughout the state while Brady remained relatively anonymous to those outside of the 15th? Or is it because, as some of the other commenters have said so far, of certain issues that each candidate chose to run off of?
Vincent, your pretty boy, didn't sell in the rest of the state because he couldn't find a consistent message. He says one thing in one part of the state and another somewhere else. He tried the pandering on a statewide basis and fell flat on the other side of his 2 faces. Face it, he has no respect for you and counted on you following him like lemmings ... and you did.
Brady was the best candidate because school prayer matters most. If only he had gotten his message out.
There is no doubt in my mind that Brady has backed JBT since the beginning. I would like to take heart that the conservatives won...got 51% of the vote, BUT BRADY made sure we lost the election.
Also, to the children that walked out at the Champaign Lincoln
Day dinner. What a stupid childish action. I thought it amazing that the Brady supporters who left were accompanied by JBT supporters. That spoke volumns about Brady's motives. You thought you were sendind a message? Yes you were, that Brady was a spoiler and his supporters are fools. We thought it before, now we know it.
I don't know how I am going to vote in Nov...... a liberal Dem, or a liberal Rep....what the heck difference does it make.
True conservatives would care less about the governors race and more about the future of the conservative party. - JC Hagen
We call people who care more about perfect idealistic conservatism more than winning elections, 'Libertarians'.
I'm all for idealism and all, but pragmatism seems to be the key to politics.
Maybe your dream to have the perfect candidate who can't win is better suited in another party? The Republican Party is a 'big tent' party. We so-called 'moderates' might be a pain in your butt, but we're not the enemy.
iwitness2,
Thanks for the explanation, I guess... but for the record, I did not vote in the Republican primaries, nor did I back any of the candidates for the Republican gubernatorial primaries. I did say, in the post that Gordy refers to at the beginning of this thread, that Topinka probably has the best chance of beating Blagojevich because I think she is closest to the Jim Edgar mold out of the candidates who ran for this particular election. I do think some of your comments are misdirected.
Oberweis is for school prayer and he said it every where he went, you brady people were just to blind to see that Oberweis was a conservative.
Yes, Brady was definitely only in it as a `spoiler'. I'm just waiting to see what little goodie JBT gives him IF she's elected. Central IL 40, I won't be voting the the governor's race because I won't vote for a pro-choice candidate whether Dem or Rep.
I don't care that Oberweis is a conservative. So is Ron Gidwitz, so is Pat Buchanan...
What turned me off to the sour milkman were his unsubstantiated attacks at Judy Baar-Topinka and his lunatic
ideas (drawing straws?)
Senator Brady stayed above the fray...stayed consistent...(unlike Oberweis from 02/04/06)...and held to his moral standards.
He's a good man who I respect...that's why I voted for him. And I probably will again if he runs for statewide office again or senator...
I do not seek the perfect candidate but rather a candidate who blongs in the republican party. JBT is better suited for the democrat party. If brady had won i would be supporting him today, and like wise for Gidwitz but not JBT
YoungRighty, you are so Wrongy! Brady was just more deceptive in his negative campaigning. The whining commercial was a slap against the other challengers and a backhand support of JBT. His `comparison piece' was a distortion, and he did all this with the help of his lemmings. He's not a `good' man, just a `good con'.
I won't vote for a pro-choice candidate whether Dem or Rep.
Wouldn't the fact that they are both pro-choice mean the OTHER issues would suddenly be the most relevant in the decision?
It's not like Oberweis or Brady could have banned abortion with our current legislature.
Let's be honest, whether pro-choice or pro-life, no governor is getting an abortion ban bill anywhere near his desk in the next 4 years.
I know you're dying to ban abortion, but you're living in a baby-killin' State, where baby-killin' candidates control the legislature. It sucks. But thems the facts. You can either have your baby-killin' with a big spending, gun banning, pension stealing weasel or you can have your baby-killin' with a moderate republican.
Your choice, but your choice doesn't involve abortion, and it never did as far as the gubernatorial race goes. Get over it.
The first negative comment I heard was from Brady....at the first debate, where he attacked Oberweis on two points....illegal immagration, and said..."it takes more to govern the state than knowing how to hand out ice cream." That was just rude.
What did Oberweis say that was untrue? Judy has been part of the Springfield culture. Her personal life???? Her pro abortion stance?
Gidwitz stated that Judy was part of the culture of coruption also, why did no one go after Gidwitz? Because he wasn't a threat??????
Glock21, the Illinois Governor's race is a remake of `Dumb & Dumber', and I didn't like the first movie, I'm not going to participate in the second.
Whah, it's all stupid, and I don't like it.
Well I'm glad you explained it to me in a rational way that points out how you aren't just being a big baby, taking your ball, and going home.
Appreciate it. ;)
I don't know if rehashing the Brady/Oberweis dynamics is of any real use at this point. However, I do think it takes a bit of arrogance to suggest that Oberweis supporters were duped and that he wasn't a true conservative.
I thought Brady's "handing out ice cream" crack was kinda funny, to be honest.
handymom, Brady is counting on conservatives forgetting that he `spoiled' this election for conservatives. I, for one, won't let ANYONE forget; he deserves to be punished for what he did!
Hooah! Truthdetector1
If Oberweis is anything like his loyal followers here, then I, for one, won't let ANYONE forget how Brady saved us from a real [expletive deleted].
If it's a conspiracy theory, so be it. But if I have to live with a moderate instead of a bunch of yahoos who think they can tell me whether or not I or anyone else belong in the Republican party, wage hate campaigns against fellow party members before and after losing elections to them... gee whiz... I think I can find a way.
The sooner this guy runs out of money the better.
I wish I knew who was going to win an election before it started so I could decide whether I am wasting my time or not. Telling the other candidate's they need to get out of the race because I know their going to loose would make it easier. But darn it I have to work my butt off because all kinds of strange things happen during elections and who you think might win does not win the election and sometimes they do but until someone votes who knows.
J. C. Hagan, others-- I am glad you like and know your candidate so well I know you put allot time into your race and I know from this race and many others that I have won and lost it's not fun to lose.
I can tell you that I worked very hard for Senator Brady and thought he was going to win. I don't know that it was money, Mrs. Schafly or snow but Mr. Oberweis beat Senator Brady. As did Judy Baar Topinka I don't know about Mr. Gidwitz beating Senator Brady I could look at the numbers but I doubt that he beat him in very many counties. I am not very happy about losing but we ran a good race.
I was in Bloomington when the numbers came in and also was closely involved with the campaign. The Brady's response was the same as mine and I saw the hard work and money that Senator Brady, his family and campaign workers put into the campaign which confirmed to me that he was not a spoiler. He was in to win and I was told the day of the election that he would. As I said things happen in campaigns you never know what the turn out might be.
I can tell you if you are concerned about moving conservative issues forward starting a big fight in the conservative ranks will not bring us together. You may have received 30 or so percent of the vote but I would not suggest making the rest of us mad by making judgments about us that are false. Please don't tell me I was confused or deceived I have been volunteering in campaigns for 14 years and felt Senator Brady was a better candidate. I still think so and like him as do allot of people in Champaign County. If you would like to work together or talk I am willing and ready call me or see me I am here.
Glock21
Neither JC Hagen, Truthdetector1 nor myself have been rude to you...
Why do you have to stoop to that level?
Truth hurts, doesn't it.
As far as Jim running out of money...don't think it will happen soon...he's a financial wizard.
The Republican party was founded as a minority issue based party, not a Big Tent revival....We welcome all who share our ideals. What's wrong with pointing out that we aren't liberal? The Dems wear the liberal monacher proudly. I, for one, love being a Christian, conservative Republican.
JBT was a lifelong democrate until she decided to run for office. Then she switched parties. That's ok, one of my best friends came over from the dark side, BUT, he left the Dems because he didn't like their liberal stances. I can't know what is in JBT's heart, none of us can, but the future will be interesting.
Sorry I was going to post the last post with my name. Jim McGuire
Jim, I respect you! We had differences this cycle but no doubt that we will be on the same side soon.
run4cvrlib,
You are right, the conservatives need to work together. But the beginning of this blog seemed to be aimed bashing Oberweis. I think the JC, Truthdetector1 and I all want the conservative movement to keep going, BUT I can't sit quietly while a good, honorable man is bashed.
run4cvrlib (Jim),
You have been the most consistant and positive Brady supporter. I can tell that you truly like and believe in him. Your posts were the most persuasive of any. I do believe that Brady could have fought harder, and that when he did try, his attacks were very mild. It would have been easy to believe that he was just in the race to be the spoiler, except for your comments here. You did your candidate credit.
Thanks JC, I wish things would have worked out better for either one of our candidate's. Yes we will work togehter and we will kick butt. Where's a Democrat when you need one :)
Jim, I do believe that Judy Myers is faceing a Democrat
Now that's more like it boys! Why can't the rest of you get along like Jim and JC. Maybe if BB and JO had been more willing to work together, we wouldn't be stuck with JBT
Yes good idea, That would be fun.
After the condescending...
With the nasty...
And the...
...
I'm the rude one?
Okay, hugs and kisses...
Whip cream and cherry on top...
With super duper extra sprinkles...
Glad your guy lost.
Central IL, Oberweis did try to work with Brady & Gidwitz to prevent JBT from winning, but Brady wouldn't hear of it. You would have thoght the issues would have been more important than Brady's own political gain. But, now many of us see him for what he truly is. An opportunist of the worst kind.
Political reason is apparently out the window here if anyone thinks Brady getting behind Oberweis or at least dropping out would have meant victory for Oberweis. There are a TON of conservatives that would have voted for Judy or just not voted if Oberweis was the only conservative.
I'm conservative, but this wasn't a "conservative party" primary..... it was a Republican Party primary. To me, Brady and Topinka were the only two electible candidates in the field this time. I'm glad one of them won. I'd rather it have been Brady, because he's closer to my personal conservative beliefs, but I want to beat the Governor in the fall. Oberweis would have been our next Alan Keyes disaster. You might disagree, but I truly believe that, and I know I'm not alone.
I think everyone has missed my point (and that's my fault): that neither Brady nor Oberweis had any right to expect that the other would drop out to unite the conservative vote, or that such a move would have been successful anyway. I asked the questions I did to illustrate the silliness of the Oberweis claims that Brady was a plant or somehow screwed conservatives. Oberweis had exactly the same opportunity to win this race as everyone else, he just couldn't get enough votes to do it. Anybody claiming a conspiracy, vowing revenge against Brady, or who thinks that Oberweis would have certainly won without Brady is just being bitter.
This, after all, is why we have Primary elections instead of caucuses - but Oberweis wouldn't have won a caucus vs. Topinka either. If you don't like the procedures used in Illinois to select the candidates for each party, work to change the rules. Don't claim that your candidate or your movement was "cheated" because you were unsuccessful.
Now, onward to Blagojevich.
I heard JBT on the Roe Con show Wed - I don't like her social stances, but she is good on the stump and at the mic. She should be able to hammer on the budget and tax issues - she has a very legit shot at this.
"True conservatives would care less about the governors race and more about the future
of the conservative party."
Here's the issue though. If you're not in power, you can't change the rules. Isn't this what we've been going through since 2000? But remember it isn't the "conservative party" - it's the Republican Party. While the party still at this point has conservative ideas, I won't be surprised if the liberal wing of the party tries to change that and when that happens, then we have to make a choice.
I think some people's claim about Brady isn't true. I believe he truly wanted to win. I wanted him to win so did a lot of other people including Rick Winkel and Tim Johnson. That might be the reason he pulled a lot in the 15th. I didn't know Brady much before this election. So I don't think that was the reason. There was good ground game here in Champaign and with Scott's referendum, it brought out conservative voters. We all emailed our friends, and blogged here. All our efforts together brought Brady this victory.
As for Oberweis, and Brady dropping out, at the late date he asked for it, I don't think a lot of voters would have went with him. I think the mailer did enough of that on its own. (A comparison piece between Brady and Oberweis and don't waste your vote.) I'll tell you right now I didn't waste my vote and I am proud of my vote for Brady.
Jim McG, you did do an excellent job! And I agree. We all choose our candidates to back and to say that with a limited staff you got Champaign for Brady is quite an accomplishment.
All, If you can't get behind the Judy in the gov's race, at least get behind the Judy in the State Senate's race. I can't stand Frierichs. That guy's wierd and deserves to be trounced. Judy Meyers is very nice and has always been very friendly.
"All, If you can't get behind the Judy in the gov's race, at least get behind the Judy in the State Senate's race. I can't stand Frierichs. That guy's wierd and deserves to be trounced. Judy Meyers is very nice and has always been very friendly. ?
AMEN!!!
I like Judy Myers, a lot.
So, Mike Frerichs is weird. I hear he had the audacity to major in German and is also really, really tall.
I am not going to vote for him, but what are some real reasons not to vote for him?
You want a reason not to vote for Frerichs? Easy.
What's his platform? What's his issue? He doesn't have one. He can't put a rational thought into words...and the only reason he seems to want to be State Senator is to be State Senator.
Judy has plans. She has issues of concern. Clicky the linky: http://www.judymyers2006.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemid=40 It doesn't bother me that that's how I fall on most of those issues, too.
Handy,
Frerichs is the prototype for what people dislike about politicians. He attends Yale. He then declares that instead of going to Wall Street to make lots of money (utilizing his German Studies education) with his college friends, he will instead return to hapless Champaign County to "serve the people."
He tells Tim Johnson he wants to be the Republican state rep for this area. When Johnson tells him to work within the party until his time comes, he instead switches parties and runs unsuccessfully as a Democrat against Johnson. Two years later, he runs against Chubb Connor in the Dem primary for state rep, again losing.
Two years later, he utilizes his family connections to win a seat on the county board, but only serves two years of his term when the now Dem-controlled county board appoints him fill the remaining two years of Gerrie Parr's term as county auditor. Parr conveniently retires mid-term, but maintains her position as Dem party chair. After accomplishing nothing while in office, Frerichs still wins his auditor re-election after outspending his unknown opponent 5 to 1 (including $10,000 from Emil Jones).
6 months after telling voters he wanted to be auditor, he announces his candidacy for state senate. Starting to see the pattern? He is an arrogant, self-serving career politician.
But next to Bob Kirchner and Trish Avery, he sounds dreamy.
Avery is the chair of the Frerichs campaign.
There we go. Thanks.