It seems both the Republican and Democrat organizations made a last minute push to slate several candidates. Personally, I think that's a good thing, as competition makes for better representation.
We all know that some county board districts are more heavily drawn towards Republican or Democrat voters. Given that, as well as the current slate of candidates for the parties (including the Green Party), where do you see the battle lines being drawn in the November elections? Which races are going to determine who controls the County Board ”“ and why? What are your predictions on each race? What do you know about the candidate(s) you are supporting? Why are you supporting that person?
Here are the county board races, as I know them (italics indicates incumbent):
CB 1 ”“ Chris Doenitz (R) vs. Bob Morrison (D) CB 2 ”“ Stan James (R), Kevin Hunt (R) vs. UNOPPOSED CB 3 ”“ Brad Jones (R), Jonathan Schroeder (R) vs. Jay Searles (D), Mary Ann Midden (D) CB 4 ”“ Steve Moser (R), Greg Knott (R) vs. Michael Talkington (D), Brad Diel (D) CB 5 ”“ Art Westle (R) vs. Lorraine Cowart (D) CB 6 ”“ Beckie Heller (R), Bruce Ratcliffe (R) vs. Patricia Avery (D), Tony Fabri (D) CB 7 ”“ Mark Randall (R) vs. Carrie Melin (D) vs. Kostas Yfantis (G) CB 8 ”“ NO REPUBLICAN vs. Thomas Betz (D), Ralph Langenheim (D) vs. Joe Futrelle (G) CB 9 ”“ John Farney (R), Stu Moment (R) vs. Barbara Wysocki (D), Steve Beckett (D) vs. Nick Mann (G)
UPDATE: I have included Green Party candidates in Districts 7, 8 and 9.
There goes poor old Bob Morrison, attacking windmills again. I see him nearly every day at the post office, and I've always wanted to ask him why he keeps running. I wonder if he'll give up when his vote total percentage is in the single digits.
I think the only reason he was slated is because he has his name plastered all over his car.
Both parties appear to have slated some good candidates.
It looks to me as CB 7 ought to be up for grabs. There are a lot of neighborhoods in this area that should be strongly Republican, and Randall looks to be a solid candidate. Also an open seat. But I don't know a thing about Carrie Melin.
1. Chris
2. Hunt and James
3. Schroeder and Jones
4. Moser and Knott, easily
5. Cowart
6. Avery and Ratcliffe
7. Randall
8. Tom and Ralph
9. Beckett and Farney
Nine Rs, 5 Ds
R's pick up a seat in 6, 7 and 9, Board goes back to Rs
Jason left off the Green candidates in 7 (Kostas Yfantis), 8 (Joe Futrelle) and 9 (Nick Mann).
Futrelle is a very active campaigner and could very well upset Sleepy Ralph.
good to see Greens in 7 and 9 - can do nothing but help the Republican candidates.
I wonder if Ratcliffe and Bruno use the same kind of moustache wax.
Does Wal-Mart sell moustache wax?
There is no reason why the GOP couldn't pick up 2 seats in this election. It seems to me that a targeted effort directed at District 6 is the way to accomplish that. First, the appeal needs to be not seen as partisan. The fact is that Avery and Fabri have not served the voters well and that needs to be laid out for the voters to see.
If this turns into a power play between the parties, with the "control of the CB" seen as the reason behind it, the voters will be repulsed. The voters of District 6 are mixed and many will listen to an argument about who is the better candidate, but they won't be persuaded to vote for an inferior candidate just to swing control of the CB. If that's the message, then the GOP will have lost every single Dem voter and almost all the independents.
Ratcliffe needs to publicly challenge Avery. Drive home her failures as CB Chairman which ultimately cost her the Chairmanship. Her arrogance and inability to lead were legendary and the challengers need to get that message out to the electorate.
A couple of years back under the leadership of Steve Hartman the GOP spent a bunch of money on CB billboards, in an effort to gain control. That seems like the wrong approach altogether. You don't see the national parties using a shotgun approach and wasting resources on races they have no chance of winning. This needs to be a targeted approach with county-wide GOP resources directed in favor of Ratcliffe, Heller and Randall in 6 & 7.
Heller may be the unknown, but as long as you are targeting resources, it only makes sense to expose the flaws of Fabri and Avery at the same time, and if the public learns what poor jobs they have done, then that's the chance for Heller to waltz in on Ratcliffe's coattails.
Anon 7:30,
Farney has an excellent chance to beat Wysocki in 9. He's an outstanding candidate and she was definitely weakened in the primary.
I don't understnad why all you Repubs are so confident of a Mark Randall victory in District 7. Carrie Melin is a good fit for that district, she teaches English as a second language at the U of I. Why is Mark Randall such a shoe in candidate?
You're all also pretty confident of a Farney victory in District 9 and I don't get that either. Farney got his ass kicked by Phyllis Clark in his City Clerk race. The Green kid (yes he's literally a kid) won't draw enough votes from Barb to throw it to Farney.
Here's my predictions:
D1: Doenitz
D2: Hunt and James
D3: Schroeder and Searles (my upset pick)
D4: Moser and Knott
D5: Cowart
D6: Avery and Fabri (GOP mudslinging fails)
D7: Melin
D8: Betz and Langenheim (Futrelle will give Ralph a scare though)
D9: Beckett and Wysocki
Dems defy conventional wisdoma and actually pick up a seat, 16-11 majority
Shoo-in, like shoo-fly.
A Dem pickup in District 3 would be really painful to the GOP.
Blue Donkey,
As usual, thanks for your ridiculously biased predictions. The Dems will win all of the current Dem seats and pick up a current R seat as well? Duh. Jones will win easily due to name ID from the 2004 election and Dist 3 being drawn to benefit R's.
Not buying, if you go to the shelden hogue string you'll see blue donkey's comments and you'll understand that jones will be sunk by the tidal wave of support pouring in for hogue.
"tidal wave of support pouring in for hogue"
That's a good one.