Tom Kacich writes:
Myers got 58.45 percent in the city of Danville. Her individual precincts counts were higher, in most cases, than Rick Winkel four years ago. (In Danville 1, for example, she got 338 votes to the 273 Winkel got four years ago). That was a good showing. But it wasn't enough.
And she got only 54.88 percent in those areas of Vermilion County outside of Danville.
Meanwhile, Frerichs got 59.75 percent in Champaign, 67.71 percent in Urbana and 43.1 percent in the "rural/suburban" areas of Champaign County. Although that doesn't sound impressive, it's almost 10 percentage points better than Dan McCollum did in the same area against Winkel in 2002.
The Repubs I spoke with are baffled by Myers' support in Vermilion County. They thought she'd get 60 to 65 percent.
Without getting into too much detail, the support for Myers in Danville and Vermilion County was very, very disappointing. Myers actually did about 600 votes better (in terms of margin) than I thought she would do in Champaign County, but we did about 2,000 votes worse in Danville/Vermilion.
just something to think about:
Black had no opposition - nothing to spur his supporters to the polls in Danville
Naomi did
you can't stop someone from running, but......
With the election safely behind us, I feel that I can now make a couple of points.
When the Republican Party chose Judy Myers, we breathed a sigh of relief. My worst fear was a campaign against Mark Shelden or Bill Black. I wouldn't have told Mike this, but I would have given him little chance against Shelden and no chance against Black. Shelden likely would have won Champaign county, or come close to doing so, and would have carried Vermillion, even if by less than Myers did. Black would have won both handily, I believe. In either case, I doubt we would have received the continuing enormous statewide financial support that Mike did right up until the end. I don't say this to gloat, but I have to be honest with you: Myers was not a good choice, and was not a particularly strong as a candidate. The election was hers to lose, and the longer the campaign went on, the more she was forced to appear with Mike, the worse she did. In another week or two weeks, Mike's victory would have been easy.
While your decision-making in the process of candidate-selection was questionable, ours in regard to Parnarauskis nearly cost Mike the election. Parnarauskis ran a credible campaign, garnering 3.5% of the vote. I won't name names, but the decision to expend so much time and effort to keep him off the ballot backfired, nearly costing Mike the election. I believe it turned a small share of voters off of Mike, who wrongly blamed him for the whole affair.
In any case, looking ahead we believe that it will be very difficult to defeat Mike as an incumbent. You have to admit he's intelligent and capable. He'll spend the next two years strengthening his support in Vermillion County. In two years time, we would enter a campaign even against Shelden without worries. Such is the power of incumbency.
The x-factor, ironically, is the monopoly of power we now hold in Springfield. Democrats must govern well. Otherwise we'll have noone to blame but ourselves if there is voter backlash in two years. Another x-factor is the emergence of the Greens as a statewide party. They polled exceptionally well. But I doubt that they'll ever have any signficant appeal outside of Champaign-Urbana, and Mike will work to secure the base of progressive voters.
One final point: Mike, if he so chooses, could be a very credible candidate against Tim Johnson in two years. He's ambitious and I wouldn't put it past him. He's evidently well-liked by kingmakers in the party, including Obama. He'd have no problem getting Gill, who's been a disaster for us, out of the way and back into the ER. Obviously, this would change the calculus for 52.
Well, there it is. I'm not going to contribute again, but please let me complement you on the at times interesting blog.
"Well, there it is. I'm not going to contribute again, but please let me complement you on the at times interesting blog."
nice post - I hope you reconsider about future contributions - you don't have to give away any secrets :-)
Nice post 'stratigist'. Refreshing to see that you have a small thread of public service in your post by your statement "Democrats must govern well."
However they will have to engage in a 'mindmeld' with an ethical, financially responsible business person.
Word on the street in Vermilion is that normally-loyal Judy voters were put off by her negative campaign ads. Many people who have been used to voting for Judy for years and years took to viewing her as a mother-figure type. The negative ads played against that and turned off some Democrats and Moderates who had been loyal Judy supporters. Judy's a nice person, and lot's of people have commented that they had not seen and did not like the negative side of her personality (even though it surely was not her that was pushing that strategy).
If it is your premise that Judy lost because of Vermilion County, then the conventional wisdom around here is that she lost significant support because of her negative campaign.
I think the "stratigist" makes some sound, well reasoned points. Its a very thoughtful analysis. However, I think he under plays the x-factors. The state has several issues that must be addressed in the very near future and tough votes will be taken. The pension system, education funding, medicaid payments to providers and state spending are all issues that will result in tough votes for Dems. In a district that pays close attention to state politics like the 52nd, these will especially tough on the new senator-elect. Emil will not be able to allow vulnerable members to withhold votes on these tough issues like he did for Demuzio during the FY 07 budget. Furthermore, if the state continues to gut the funding for UI in favor of other state universities, this will be another x-factor. I wont even get into the Chief factor... A young bright state senator certainly has a bright future in IL politics, however, lets not gloss over the x-factors quite so easily.
"Word on the street in Vermilion is that normally-loyal Judy voters were put off by her negative campaign ads."
See, this just flabbergasts me. Frerichs' negative ads were running a full five weeks before we put up a single negative spot. Yet you're saying that Vermilion County voters somehow punished Judy for her negative spots but didn't punish Mike for his?
What do think is credible, however, is that Mike's negative ads were more effective than ours.
Gordy,
Just because Frerichs went negative first did not give you license to sling mud back at him. Everybody knows Frerichs is a dishonest, arrogant jerk. All you succeeded in doing was lowering Judy to his level and removing any difference in voter's minds. Frerichs had to come out negative because he was behind. Judy had no reason to respond in kind. I'm disgusted how badly her "expert" advisors misread this election. Now we're stuck with Frerichs.
"All you succeeded in doing was lowering Judy to his level and removing any difference in voter's minds. Frerichs had to come out negative because he was behind. Judy had no reason to respond in kind."
You weren't looking at the same race I was. His attacks worked, dramatically and quickly. Not responding would have meant Myers losing by 20.
I'm no election expert by any stretch, but Topinka didn't respond to Blagos adds for a long time - did people keep their good opinions of her being nice?
Resonding to an opponent's negative attacks does not equate to launching smears of your own. I'm not surprised you can't differentiate the difference. Don't sit there and try to claim Judy lost because Frerichs ran pictures of her next to Ryan. She was supposedly way ahead in August. Apparently you misjudged something. If you can't admit mistakes, you're doomed to keep repeating them. Figure it out.
Frerichs needs to watch his percentage to stay in office. He is
losing his own home truff besides southern Champagin County. No
money or help in Vermilion and he will be out. Very one will be watching his back and knowing the real Mike Frerichs. Of course I
quess he can hope he keeps Lynn Foster in his back pockets. Most
of her county elections machines did not work. Big spin In Vermilion
County right now.
Mike will bring many jobs to Vermilion and Champaign. Walmart and Mc Donalds need the help. Myers would have worked on $18.00 jobs but Mke wants those high paying min wage jobs. (Min wage should be moved to $12.00). Mike has said he will help everyone get better jobs and more MONEY. When does his office open in Vermilion?
I know both Rick Winkel and Mike Frerichs personally. The idea of Senator Frerichs running for U.S. Rep at this point, while exciting, may be pre-mature. I wanted to say that Rick has not left the face of the earth. I wouldn't sleep on him just yet.
I won't name names, but the decision to expend so much time and effort to keep him off the ballot backfired, nearly costing Mike the election. I believe it turned a small share of voters off of Mike, who wrongly blamed him for the whole affair.
Wrongly? Explain.
"You weren't looking at the same race I was. His attacks worked, dramatically and quickly. Not responding would have meant Myers losing by 20."
As usual, you are twisting my words. I did not say Judy should not have responded to the Frerichs ads. She could have responded to his ridiculous assertions without slinging the mud herself. She was way ahead in her internal polls in August, and the Frerichs ads showing her next to Ryan didn't cause the disastrous results we saw Tuesday. The only way to keep from making the same mistakes in the next election is to admit the mistakes made in this one.
You are gutless.
"You are gutless.'
Huh?
"As usual, you are twisting my words. I did not say Judy should not have responded to the Frerichs ads. She could have responded to his ridiculous assertions without slinging the mud herself."
Write for me, please, a script for a TV commercial that responded to Frerichs' attacks without, as you put it, slinging any mud whatsoever. For bonus points, write a corresponding radio script and briefly describe a coordinate mail piece.
Shoot, if you had all the answers all along, why weren't you helping with the campaign?
I think a lot of people were turned off by actions by Republicans at the federal level. The war, the scandals, etc. I went door to door and made phone calls to voters in my precinct and many people acted like "Republican" was a four-letter word. I think that affected all our races.
Alright - I havent read all of this thread, but after reading the first post i can say without hesitation that my left ass cheek is a better strategist than that idiot.
1) Frerichs would also get smoked if he ran in IL 15 - it is so republican that Kerry lost by 16-18.
2) The WAY Frerichs handled the dip shit 3rd party candidate was the problem. It should have been handled by people farther removed from his campaign, and even if it cost him a few votes to try to throw him off the ballot, the treat of losing 2-4 percent still REQUIRES you try to get rid of the dip shit 3rd party candidate
"people acted like “Republican” was a four-letter word"
Yes, contrary to the saying, every now and then, all politics is NATIONAL. The years 1996 and 2006 are examples.