...Whereby a Republican ever holds a Statewide office in Illinois again.
While you are at it, give me a scenario whereby Republican hold a majority of either house again.
Hint: Neither can happen under the present condition of the Republican Party in Illinois.
"Neither can happen under the present condition of the Republican Party in Illinois."
Mostly True.
One scenario - a Republican from the Congressional delegation (Shimkus? Kirk?) runs statewide. They have a much better understanding of message, media, organization, etc. than anyone in the State Party or in Springfield. Someone can win given the present condition of the IL GOP by running around it and without it. They're irrelevant enough that it wouldn't be that hard.
Realistically, it seems like a sufficiently unpopular or scandal-ridden politician has historically swung public opinion in the other direction. For example, Dan Walker, a Democrat, was the Illinois governor in the mid-70s, and he made enough mistakes that he lost the Democratic primary in the next race, and Jim Thompson became the next governor. Then we had two more Republicans, Jim Edgar and George Ryan. Ryan had some big scandals, and decided not to run again. Then we ended up with a Democratic governor, Blagojevich. If Blago has enough problems, our next gov will probably be a Republican.
I'm cynical - I think Illinois Democrats (and especially Chicago Democrats) expect and tolerate a certain amount of corruption in their elected officials, and thus they'll not abandon Blagojevich (as they've not abandoned Daley).
If Blago starts losing support from independents, then it might be a factor, but at this point IL has almost as many Democrats and Republicans and Independents combined. That said, the IL GOP needs to be able to take advantage (which sounds horrible to say) of any corruption in the current Administration, and right now they're not capable of doing that.
Oh, if Blago gets indicted, I think that'll be more than most Dems will put up with. Eisendrath beat Blago in the 2006 primary in Champaign County, which probably suggests that a number of other Dems around here don't really care much for him either. The problems with Blago's leadership will probably become much more apparent in the next few years.
If Blago gets indicted, I think it'll affect his already diminishing support among Champaign County Democrats, and Downstate Democrats in general, but I don't think it'll have much impact on his popularity in Chicago, as along as he keeps robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Rampant corruption and high-level indictments haven't affected Mayor Daley's electoral fortunes one iota, and the vast majority of votes for a statewide Democratic Primary come out of Cook County.
Now, if Lisa Madigan were to challenge him in 2010, that'd be a different story, but I've already sidetracked the discussion far enough.
Statewide ideas-
1) Quit looking to past leaders to save the day (ie - Edgar is done, don't even mention him ever again).
2) Quit trying to kill each other in the primary (ie - Oberweis, lets hope he sticks to ice cream, or Congress).
3) Promote a positive message of what can be done, not a message of the current failures, doom and gloom, finger pointing, etc. Voters are tired of that.
Statehouse ideas -
1) Hope that the D's computer breaks the day that they draw the maps.
2) Revive cumulative voting.
Wow! Cool responses.
I could go on all night as to my replies, but they all revolve around abandoning "party thinking" and embracing "Good Policy."
With the state in 100% Dem control, the landscape is perfect for Republicans to embrace good policy, but they simply refuse. If the Dems offer "fake" swaps like HB750, offer real swaps like Michigan's in 1995.
If the Dems offer selling Lottery and Toll roads, Reps could offer monetizing and Privatizing both and placing both in IL's underfunded pension plans, replenishing assets.
I'll admit I'm biased. The "Where do I get my slice of the State-Funded Pension Pork Pie" has infected, and destroyed the party in this state. IL Republicans cynically blog about Jones' wife Jonesing after a fat pay raise, but in reality, they are only salivating for a shot at their snouts in the same trough.
It is good policy to drain the trough and slaughter the pigs. The taxpayers will laud such policies, but the party is bought off, and can't make the case.
It is my view that we need a Constitutional Convention, and that such a convention will be the last ditch effort to take the state back from the low class trough feeders in both parties - who are destroying a perfectly fine state.
I'm aware of the arguments against such a strategy, but the situation is too dire to ignore the opportunity.
If nothing else, such a campaign - based upon policy, not party - will do much to re-invigorate the center right in the state.
Kirk is a good politician but once you get outside of the district where he is well known he is toast. If you look at how close Dan Seals got to him this year you will see that even though he is known to do a pretty good job getting stuff done for the district he can't get much of a proportion of the Democrat Vote. I mean the Kirk/Seals election was ALOT close than the McSweeny/Bean election. PS I'm from Kirk's district and I've really heard nothing bad about him other than he sides with Bush on a lot of things...He is the one republican I actually thought about interning for over the summer.
Also snice I'm sure Gordy will read this... I propose that you include some kind of Obama thread like once a month or once every other week. I belive that He is a major topic for people from Illinois and that a biweekly thread would get a good amount of posts on it. It's your site to choose what you want, but just throwing out an idea. (and I encourage other readers to post if you think this is a horrible idea or if you like it because I might just be out of it.
"Also snice I'm sure Gordy will read this... I propose that you include some kind of Obama thread like once a month or once every other week. I belive that He is a major topic for people from Illinois and that a biweekly thread would get a good amount of posts on it. It's your site to choose what you want, but just throwing out an idea. (and I encourage other readers to post if you think this is a horrible idea or if you like it because I might just be out of it."
I think that people can read about and discuss Obama on a million different websites. But if you're interested in something about him on here, then please register (you can even choose an anonymous username) and post something about him periodically - the great thing about this site is that if something interests you, you can post about it and don't need to wait for me to get with it.
One scenario - the Gov raises the personal income tax to 5% and people get mad, and the GOP runs a decent candidate against Blago running for his 3rd term.
1. Republicans must realize that centrist positions win elections. Republicans have been too wrapped up in "party purity" and have had bad, divisive primaries. JBT may have been "moderate", but she was old school, old news.
2. Find a centrist candidate that has appeal. Down to earth. Likeable. Supports business because it supports workers. Supports workers because they support business. (May I remind you, workers vote, businesses do not.)
3. Quit pointing out the faults of the Democrats, tell the voters what you will do, not compared to the Democrats, but what YOU will do.
4. Face it. You have to play nice with Daley. And Jesse Jackson.
5. Disavow Bush and the Washington beltway Republicans. DO NOT have Newt campaign for you.
6. Beg Obama to become a Republican and run for Guv.. (Joke).
7. Beg Glenn Poshard to become a Republican and run for Guv. (Not so much of a joke).
Poshard is/was a pro-life Dem - I voted for the guy. Can you make that suggestion 7, after making points 1 & 2?
extrawise said it all but NOBODY is listening----typical of the IL GOP party followers.
extrawise covered half of the problem: the issues.
The other half is organization.
I think that redstatewannabe 8:32 and B. Reasonable are on the money (as well as both very aptly named for this thread). In NJ, Democrat Jim Florio passed the largest tax increase in state history, and then had his ass handed to him by GOPer Christie Todd Whitman in the next election. True believer conservatives may hate CTW, but she got the job done, if the job was to win the governor's mansion (called Drumthwacket in NJ - really!). In blue states, the Republicans need to break to the center, while next door in Indiana (for example), it's the Democrats that need to do that.
I think that the GOP needs to stop thinking that corruption is going to sink Blago - it hasn't yet, and that boy stinks of it. People just shrug it off and say "well, that's Illinois politics for you." Once they get socked with a big tax increase, or lose their job because their employer packs up and goes to a low tax state, then it gets different. The Republicans just need to lay off the social issue candidates - Blago's tax increase is a political gift to you (not just a fiscal kick in the nuts), so you may want to steer clear of abortion and gay marriage - or even consider embracing those positions.
I would like to think that if the Illinois GOP organization paid attention to the issues, the state would not be facing these problems.
The Republicans just need to lay off the social issue candidates - Blago's tax increase is a political gift to you (not just a fiscal kick in the nuts), so you may want to steer clear of abortion and gay marriage - or even consider embracing those positions.
I hear this often, but who has lost in Illinois lately because of holding these positions? (Keyes doesn't count.) JBT didn't hold them. Jim Ryan lost to Blago because of George Ryan. Do these issues need to be the centerpiece of the campaign - probably not. But couldn't a nice, clean, fiscal conservative hold these positions and still get elected? (It would have been nice to see Jack Ryan vs. Obama, without the swingers club incident.)
"But couldn't a nice, clean, fiscal conservative hold these positions and still get elected?"
Clean?!?!? CLEAN?!?!?
I'll sue!!!
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http://glock21.blogspot.com
Well stated Laura. I could not agree with you more.
IP,
I must say this is a great blog you run here. I don't have the patience with the uber-complications of Drupal, but the content is excellent.
As for your point about organization, it is my view that we must organize around good policy, and ignore organizing around party. This is a pretty smart crowd, and maybe most here know that for about $75-100, they could download the voter data for their precinct and ignore the worthless Republican and Democrat hacks that populate the "Precinct Commiteeman" positions.
This is not to say that 3rd parties or Independent candidates are the only answer, but the fact is that the 2 party model is broken in the states that have been taken over by the "pension pig" pod people (NJ, NY, CT. IL) that have destroyed both parties (and bankrupted entire states).
We have the tools to do it ourselves if we have the energy.
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I'm unconvinced that DEM misteps are all that we need to get a Republican. Laura is right about the relative corruption, but the organization point is key. If both parties are corrupt, but one has stronger organization, that will keep it in power, particularly when everyone is looking for their shot at a slot at the trough.
The Rep. rank and file organize around principle (good policy) and this party has given them exactly zero in that regard. The Thompson/Edgar/Ryan/Toopinka Axis has sown their past electoral success around the DEM patronage model, and are now reaping the whirlwind of a base that no longer perceives a difference between parties. I have no interest in voting for a slightly less piggish party, and whether conscious or not, most IL Republicans agree with that position.
The mind boggling thing is that embracing some decent "center right" (NOT CENTRIST) positions is a no-brainer for IL Republicans right now, and they can't even do that.
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Organize independently for a Const. Convention. If it passes, plan to run for delegate independent of a DEM or REP slate. Bring some important reforms to the table. Fight for those issues.
Yes, there are risks, but the alternative is to become another New Jersey.
In NJ, Democrat Jim Florio passed the largest tax increase in state history, and then had his ass handed to him by GOPer Christie Todd Whitman in the next election. True believer conservatives may hate CTW, but she got the job done, if the job was to win the governor's mansion (called Drumthwacket in NJ - really!).
She actually won with a one-percent plurality and could not get elected dogcatcher after her disastrous stint at the EPA. All she has done since is insult her would-be successors: classy!
"I must say this is a great blog you run here. I don't have the patience with the uber-complications of Drupal, but the content is excellent.
As for your point about organization, it is my view that we must organize around good policy, and ignore organizing around party"
Thank you for the kind words - I hope you come back often.
I think the brands of the two-party system are sufficiently recognizable that it makes more sense to build on the GOP brand (even as damaged as it is, it's still good for 25% of the vote even with a terrible candidate) than it does to start from scratch. I just think that rebuilding needs to start in our local organizations, as the statewide folk have proven incapable of even providing guidance and direction, let alone actual resources.
IP,
I tend to agree with you re: building the brand. But the brand is so damaged that the way to rebuild it is to sell good policies, and then attach the Republican Brand to them after they gain support.
Your strategy would be the more obvious and simple one except for the fact that it lacks one key element - a State Republican with a brain.
I don't see a single Republican fighting HB750 (the REAL BILL that will pass this month). All it takes is for 3 -4 Rs in each chamber to vote with it, and it is a bi-partisan bill, destroying the "Florio Effect."
By selling a "reform" Constitution, decent Dems, Citizens, and Republicans can fix the state from the ground up (Yes, it will require good organization and $$$). The sad fact is the current crop of Republicans are in bed with the current system, and don't want it changed. They just want to keep their districts, and are willing to accept their "3 men in room" Democrat overlords in exchange for their paltry feudal vassal positions.