Hawkeye Cauci

Posted January 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 AM by IlliniPundit
in

Tonight is the Iowa Caucuses, the first delegate allocation contest for the 2008 Presidential Primaries.  The last time I was this uninterested and uninspired by a Presidential election was 1992, so factor that in when considering my prognostications.

Contrary to current polling, my predictions for tonight's winners are Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney, both for the same reason.  Due to only my gut feeling and anecdotal evidence, I think those two campaigns are and have been the best organized on the ground in Iowa, and the caucuses are always about organization and "Get Out The Vote" efforts.  Such efforts were the key to John Kerry's "surprise" win there four years ago. I also think that, due to the nature of Iowa's caucuses, that polling is notoriously difficult.

As a good friend of mine likes to say:  In a few hours, we'll all know the answers.

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redstatewannabe's picture
On January 3rd, 2008 at 01:24 PM, redstatewannabe said:

Rush seems to be backing Fred (without saying so), and ripping Huckabee today.  As a guy personally pulling for Fred, I'm hoping this has some influence on tonight's events.

redstatewannabe's picture
On January 3rd, 2008 at 05:22 PM, redstatewannabe said:

Just read this on the Corner blog at the NRO:

Could Romney do it? Perhaps he is the least ill-suited to it, but it’s far from clear that he wants to try, and the automaton problem that Ross and David Brooks both diagnose keenly is very real. It is important not to underestimate the costs of nominating a candidate who is just kind of strange in basic human terms—it cost the Democrats the last two presidential elections.

I have taken some flack on this board for calling Gore a bit of a nerd, but I do think it matters to voters.  Apparently I am not alone.

On January 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

Good guesses Gordy. Just about as good as your 2006 predictions.

IlliniPundit's picture
On January 3rd, 2008 at 11:09 PM, IlliniPundit said:

I'm going to start calling them "anti-predictions."  :-)

Oh well.  This is why I work on local races, and pay only passing attention to the national stuff.

On January 3rd, 2008 at 11:12 PM, Run4cvrlib said:

Cosign

On January 4th, 2008 at 01:03 AM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

I was talking about your local predictions in 2006.

IlliniPundit's picture
On January 4th, 2008 at 09:08 AM, IlliniPundit said:

"I was talking about your local predictions in 2006."

I don't think I made any/many local predictions in 2006.  Glancing through the archives for late October and November 2006, I don't see any predictions that I made.  Generally I don't make predictions for races in which I'm involved.