Keep the Race Going

In both the Republican and Democratic primary battles, the media is obsessed with the horse race aspects of the campaigns.  It's not about how many votes you get, but whether you meet or exceed expectations.  Then, the media suggests that those who don't meet those expectations ought to drop out of the race.

But this year the race in the Republican party appears to be different than previous years, and Republican candidates would be wise to ignore the calls of the media and the pundits.  Here's why.

Unlike in previous elections, and quite possibly what will happen in the Democratic side, it appears unlikely that any Republican candidate is going to be clearing the 50% mark in many primaries, and the 40% mark doesn't look too likely in the near future.  so while the "frontrunners" are in front, it's by no means clear that they are "favorites" of the party.  And if a candidate can't clear that 50% threshold, the other candidates ought to stay in.

Tonight, I heard some pundits claim that Mitt Romney will have to consider dropping out if he doesn't win Michigan tomorrow.  While I could write quite a bit about Romney's deficiencies, it's ridiculous for him to concede the election at this point to a guy who can't clear 40% in the polls.

Like many conservatives, I'm not excited about a McCain candidacy.  It's looking somewhat likely, but it can be stopped.  Not by people dropping out, but rather by people staying in.  Some of the states are winner take all affairs, which certainly compicates this plan.  But many are not, and the ones that are favor a variety of candidates.  If the candidates and the voters ignore those who want to call this race before it is over, then we'll be left with a long primary season that truly tests our candidates and which gives even the voters voting in April, May, and June some importance in this race. 

A brokered convention would be possible.  How that would play out in the fall is an open question.  But ironically, I think that it might be easier to unify the party with all its candidates sticking it out for the next few months, than to have the vast majority of Republicans feel cheated out of their choices by a media that's less concerned with good government and more concerned with finding easy stories to write.

UPDATE:  Welcome to Campaign Spot readers!