Open Thread (9/5/2008)

Posted September 5th, 2008 at 04:33 AM by IlliniPundit
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Friday, September 5, 2008.

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On September 5th, 2008 at 09:18 AM, Bruce Byrd said:

I hate to break into the political commentary,,,,,,,but has anyone else noticed the market is heading way south,,,,and could dip below the 11,000 mark today? If it drops below that mark, which it has been flirting with for months,,,then my prediction is, it will drop to 10,000 very quick. Joblessness is higher than predicted,,,,so if I had to guess,,McCain will pay the price for it,,,,even though he is not to blame for it.

redstatewannabe's picture
On September 5th, 2008 at 09:57 AM, redstatewannabe said:

the Dow was below 11,000 in July, and rebounded 700 points in weeks.

the market has just been very volatile, moving 200-300 points a day in either direction

I wouldn't bet one way or the other about what it will do in the next 3 months

On September 5th, 2008 at 10:03 AM, Bruce Byrd said:

I just do not think it will rebound again that quickly, if it drops this time,,,too many indicators that are not good,,,,,but that is just my opinion,,,,,I am not an expert,,,or a Nostradamas by any means :)

On September 5th, 2008 at 10:25 AM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

This is the next leg down.  We will keep doing this (bear market rally, next leg down--repeat) until deleveraging is complete.  All asset classes are falling.  Even commodities had a huge blowup.  About the only thing strengthening is the dollar--and that is because it represents an international flight to safety (of course, this will kill exporter's earnings now).  How bad will it get?  Those who have predicted this up to this point throw out some scary numbers--real estate down 50% or more, peak to trough, equity markets down 40% or more peak to trough, unemployment somewhere north of 10%.  Plan accordingly.  Pay down debt.

Interestingly, with the jobs numbers (which are manipulated and get revised worse later all the time in bear markets, so things are now actually worse than they look), government hiring is actually propping them up to some degree.  This is a tell--when they see the writing on the wall they fatten the ranks so they have newbies to cut when the SHTF.  Real estate values are plummeting, so must assessments in time.  Unemployment up, income tax revenue falls.  Investors cut and run and take huge losses, capital gains revenue disappears.  Sales tax revenue falls.  We will see government solvency problems at every level on a scale you won't believe until it happens.  If someone takes the fall for it before the election, they might be the lucky one.  Especially if the fellow elected is making a lot of empty promises.

On September 5th, 2008 at 10:28 AM, Market watcher (not verified) said:

And that concludes today's market report from Chicken Little.

On September 5th, 2008 at 10:32 AM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

Market watcher--you must be a bull.  Good luck with that.

On September 5th, 2008 at 11:36 AM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

Nobody has mentioned McCain's speech yet, so I will.  I thought it was fairly bland.  The crowd wasn't really sure when to applaud and constantly interrupted him.  I would have preferred more specifics and less rhetoric about his history - we all know who he is by now.  Voters want to know what the platform is and how his ideas are going to be made into reality.  I did think the tone of his speech was good.  He wasn't as partisan or childish as other speakers of the convention (Guliani).  But, this seemed intentional since he has spent so much time in recent months unifying the party (and it's conservative right) it is now time to get back to his "maverick" image and shore up support with independents.  Overall I was dissapointed.  I thought he would have more ideas and less fluff.  However, the last five minutes or so were really good, motivating and inspirational.  If only the entire speech could have been delivered with that fervor.

 

Now that both candidates have gotten the conventions out of their systems, I would really like to see them focus on specifics.  Let's discuss the actual process of solving some of our problems, rather than just syaing we are going to do it.

On September 5th, 2008 at 01:07 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

where can I go to get signs for my car and/ or yards?

On September 5th, 2008 at 01:16 PM, fred (not verified) said:

with all the park closings, i have been receiving emails warning that middleford wildlife area will soon be closed also.  does anyone have any solid info about this?

On September 5th, 2008 at 01:47 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

The Wilson sisters, known as "Heart", ordered the RNC to not use their song "Barracuda" before Thursday night. The RNC used it anyway.

A small thing to be sure, but when a person owns intellectual property and tells another they can't use it, and the person uses it anyway, that's called theft. In fact it is a specific Federal and Illinois crime which can land you in prison, a felony.

 

 

On September 5th, 2008 at 01:50 PM, Champaign Dweller said:

Do they own it?  It depends on what rights they maintained in their property.

On September 5th, 2008 at 01:51 PM, Narc said:

A small thing to be sure, but when a person owns intellectual property and tells another they can't use it, and the person uses it anyway, that's called theft. In fact it is a specific Federal and Illinois crime which can land you in prison, a felony.

To be pedantic, it's copyright infringement, not theft. Piracy is often a civil, not criminal, matter. On the other hand, it's may just show that a McCain administration will continue the high regard for the law and the Constitution that the Bush administration holds.

On September 5th, 2008 at 02:19 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

Yes, they own it.

To be non-pedantic, it is covered under 720 ILCS 5/16-7 (a)(1) a Class 4 Felony.

On September 5th, 2008 at 02:58 PM, ThoughtPolice said:

To be non-pedantic, it is covered under 720 ILCS 5/16-7 (a)(1) a Class 4 Felony.

So, you assert that the RNC sold unauthorized recordings of Barracuda for profit? Because that's what your cited statute discusses.

IlliniPundit's picture
On September 5th, 2008 at 03:30 PM, IlliniPundit said:

To the person who is trying to post appearing to use the identity of a registered user:  please stop. 

I will continue to unpublish any comments posted by unregistered users which appear to mimic the usernames of registered users.

redstatewannabe's picture
On September 5th, 2008 at 03:34 PM, redstatewannabe said:

after a lousy day yesterday, a bad start today, and a report of higher unemployment.... the Dow closed UP 32 today.

go figure

On September 5th, 2008 at 03:52 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

IP, there was satirical purpose to posting as another, it was not to pretend to actually be that person.

Satire: trenchant wit, irony, or sarcasm used to expose and discredit vice or folly.

On September 5th, 2008 at 04:02 PM, ThoughtPolice said:

IP, there was satirical purpose to posting as another, it was not to pretend to actually be that person.

So, make a username that mocks the other, rather than mimics them.

Calumny: a false and malicious statement designed to injure the reputation of someone or something

IlliniPundit's picture
On September 5th, 2008 at 04:23 PM, IlliniPundit said:

"IP, there was satirical purpose to posting as another, it was not to pretend to actually be that person.

Satire: trenchant wit, irony, or sarcasm used to expose and discredit vice or folly."

Then forgive me, and please repost it using a username that is a little more clearly satirical.  Thanks.

On September 5th, 2008 at 04:31 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

Mocking is so tacky.

ThoughtPolice knows how to use an online dictionary, too.

Let me ask you, ThoughtPolice, if for example Obama started using "Born in the USA" in a political way, and was asked to stop by the owner, Bruce Springsteen, and he kept doing it, would that be wrong? Why? What would suggest be done about it?

On September 5th, 2008 at 04:36 PM, ThoughtPolice said:

Let me ask you, ThoughtPolice, if for example Obama started using "Born in the USA" in a political way, and was asked to stop by the owner, Bruce Springsteen, and he kept doing it, would that be wrong? Why? What would suggest be done about it?

Exactly what the Wilson sisters did.

But calling it a felony under 720 ILCS 5/16-7 (a)(1) is just silly.

On September 5th, 2008 at 04:54 PM, Ralph Langenheim (not verified) said:

Where can I get signs....  Democratic signs are available at our tent in the Urbana Farmer's Market and at our headquarters,across from Christie Clinic on Neal Street just south of University.  Also, you can contact our local candidates.   Ralph Langenheim

On September 5th, 2008 at 05:20 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

Ok, but what should be done after Obama blatantly ignored the request?

On September 5th, 2008 at 05:24 PM, ThoughtPolice said:

Exactly what the Wilson sisters did.

Why are you interrogating me over this? At what point did I condemn the actions of Heart or the Wilson sisters, or support the RNC's actions?

On September 5th, 2008 at 09:28 PM, Anonymous (not verified) said:

RSW--if you think today was confusing wait for monday.  FNM/FRE get the bail out this weekend.  if you are taxpayer it's time to get drunk but good

On September 5th, 2008 at 09:45 PM, ThoughtPolice said:

Is it just me, or have the recent discussions on IP reminded anyone of cable "news" "shows" (Hardball, Nancy Grace, etc.)?

I've enjoyed them (it keeps me on my toes, after all), but I took a step back and looked at the recent discussions. I'm sitting here, imagining the most frequent commenters (myself included) as talking heads shouting at the top of our lungs at each other. We're resorting to logical fallacies, absurd arguments, and awful reductionism. It honestly cracks me up - we're getting each other so worked up over nothing, but we obviously enjoy doing it (otherwise we'd, uhh, just quit doing it).

After all, someone is wrong on the internet!

Glock21's picture
On September 5th, 2008 at 09:57 PM, Glock21 said:

"After all, someone is wrong on the internet!"

 

It's all part of the WoT... the War on Thosewrongontheinternet. We shall never waiver, we shall never relent.  Stand up! Stand up and FIGHT!!! :-)

 

--

Glock21 Op/Ed

Kevin Sandefur's picture
On September 5th, 2008 at 10:09 PM, Kevin Sandefur said:

To Whom It May Concern:

Your guy sucks.

And this time I do mean all of "you."

I don't care which side you're on, or what party you're in.

Your guy still sucks.

Thank yuh very much.

On September 7th, 2008 at 03:40 PM, BAYNE (not verified) said:

A lot depends on how the Fed deals with Freddie Mac and Fannie May, as of now the only ones will suffer, big time, are common share holders. There are some international ramifications here as some small allies are heavily invested. The fact that the early reports will not be clarified in their entirety is reason for some pessimism, however (!) the intervention should shore up the dollar, which is on the rebound relative to the Euro.

 

If the market becomes encourged by the Fed's proposal and there is some foreign investment in U.S. futures etc. This could actually increase market strength. The market go down to 10,000 who really knows but there are reasons to believe that the ascending dollar will, along with the Freddie-Fannie deal will improve the market. There will be sector differences. However, for example, it may very well be the case that GM improves by about .20 cents or more a share on Monday. (NOTE: I own a few shares; just thought I'd let you know soz you wouldn't think I'm pumping the stock). A lot of sectors related to housing, e.g. stocks in Wal-Mart and Home Depot may benefit. Gold down. Dollar up. Retail down for now, a little. Energy, good for twenty minutes on the market sometime in the trading day. I think it'll be a pretty good day Monday Sept. 8. We'll see.