Last night was the best night for the Champaign County GOP since at least 2002 (two Rick Winkel victories for State Senator) or 2000 (Tim Johnson for Congress), but maybe going even further back than that.
Let's remember what really happened last night, after all the smoke has cleared:
- The Republican Mayor was re-elected unopposed
- For a City-Wide Council seat, a Republican who had never before run for office defeated a Democrat incumbent by over 1,100 votes
- Also for Council, the leading Democrat vote-getter was a former County Board Chair who lost by almost 1,100 votes
- The Champaign County Democrats pushed three candidates for Council and two for Unit 4 School Board. All were defeated decisively.
I think there were two themes to last nights results (at least in the City of Champaign).
The first is partisanship partisan affiliation. The key issue in this race wasn't the smoking ban, as its proponents finished in first and fourth through sixth. The key dividing line between the victors and the vanquished is partisan affiliation. Even Tom Bruno, a Republican-leaning independent, ended up as the leading vote-getter but was publicly endorsed by Republican Mayor Jerry Schweighart in a letter and a radio ad.
In addition, by looking at results precinct-by-precinct, turnout was significantly higher in GOP precincts. Rep. Tim Johnson lost the City of Champign last November, getting 46 percent of the vote and winning 15 out of 40 precincts. Yesterday, turnout in those 15 precincts was 25.7 percent. In the remaining 25 precincts, turnout was 13.6 percent. And even in some high-turnout precincts lost by Johnson (City of Champaign 20 & 21, for example) Burno and Feinen ran well ahead of the pack, and Foster finished a strong third.
GOP voters were clearly motivated, and the County GOP organization did an excellent job of organizing and working door-to-door and via phones to turn out key voters.
The second theme was personalities. A good friend mentioned to me yesterday that he thought Tom Bruno, Deb Frank Feinen and Karen Foster would win because none of the Democrat At-Large candidates had "crossover appeal," i.e., they seemed unlikely to attract votes beyond their base. To some degree, that's true. In 31 of the 40 precincts, the GOP candidates were clumped into either first-second-third, or fourth-fifth-sixth (including every precinct in CC 20 through 38). They vote results make it appear as if there were two distinct slates, and that the Democrat slate had a had time picking up independents in swing precincts like CC 20 and CC 25.
I was most surprised by Annette Williams finishing in sixth place. I thought her radio and her more visible activity would make her the leading vote getter, and I thought her and Foster would battle it out for the third seat. I was also very surprised by the margin of victory for the three GOP candidates.
For Unit 4 School Board, I agreed with the Conventional Wisdom that Greg Novak and Sue Grey were going to win. I thought Kristine Chalifoux would do very well, but I was worried about the fourth seat. In the end, Scott MacAdam won it pretty handily, finishing 700 votes ahead of Melodye Rosales. I had forecasted that race versus the 2006 School Referendum results, thinking that the latter might be predictive. But it wasn't, partly because the referendum did so poorly everywhere, and because the Novak-Grey-Chalifoux-MacAdam group did so strongly just about everywhere other than North Champaign. Greg Novak finished in first or second place in 43 of 51 precincts. For Sue Grey, it was 40. For Chalifoux and MacAdam, they finished in the top four in 46 and 32 precincts, respectively.
I was most suprised here, as I was in the Council races, by the margins. Novak and Grey got twice as many votes as Melodye Rosales. Novak got four times as many votes as the incumbent, Minosca Alcantara. And I was also surprised by Alcantara's last-place finish. I thought she'd be in fourth or fifth.
Personally, it was a great night for me. I actively helped all seven of the winning candidates, working on everything from candidate recruitment, fundraising, strategy, message, mail, radio and GOTV. I helped some more than others, and by no means are their victories to be attributed to little old me, but I am extremely gratified that all seven were victorious. We had great candidates and a great team, and this was the product of a lot of hard work by many people.
After last November's painful loss to Sen. Mike Frerichs, I had a number of conversations, discussing the question of "where do we go from here?" As a Party, I advocated that we get organized and active and work to support our local candidates in the Spring 2007 elections. I never thought everyone would come together as well as they did, and I'm happy to have been part of the team. Now we need to build on this foundation, and re-dedicate ourselves to making the Champaign County Republican Party the clear choice for voters desiring quality representation, open government, common-sense, diversity of ideas, cooperative problem-solving and a positive outlook. Let's keep the Champaign County GOP moving in the right direction.
Congratulations to the winners. And congratulations to everyone who ran - as candidates, your involvement is awe-inspiring to me, as I've never been brave enough to put my own name on the ballot.