As the Illini Pundit is a political forum, so I would like open a debate on the idea of “Conventional Wisdom” – in this case the accepted concept that a low turnout election (municipal or primary election) is better for a referendum then a high turnout – (state or national). I have seen this statement on Illini Pundit, and heard elsewhere from “experts”, but I wonder just how true this statement is?
Let me start by pointing out that I am at best an amateur politician. I have a great interest in American History which means that I have some knowledge of the American political system – but then again a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I have read on the subject and kept an eye on local politics long before I entered political life.
From experience in walking areas and watching elections, I tend to group voters into two categories – which for the lack of a better term I will class as, “Hardcore” and “Soft-core”.
Hardcore voters vote for a number of reasons – mainly though in my opinion a sense of civic duty – and will be at the polls rain or shine. For example, I consider my 80 year old parents as “hardcore” voters though they can be of any age – as my daughter is also one of them. They read the paper, listen to the radio, ask questions, and study the sample ballot. If you walk door to door they will engage you in conversation and ask questions – especially if they disagree with you.
Soft-core votes vote for the major elections, and may or may not vote on all issues. I have two sisters out of the area – and several nieces in the area – that I consider as “soft-core” voters/ They will usually vote in major election but not always in what they consider to be minor. They will study the major races and when they do vote in the minor races they vote in a “Hobson’s choice” system – they are the voters that will be swayed by ballot placement – voting for the first name that they see.
I looked at the data from Champaign precincts 6 & 7, as well as Tolono 2 as that’s the area covered by the village of Savoy south of Church Street – as well as that of Mahomet precincts 1 to 5. I picked Savoy as they has something to gain in a successful referendum – a new school, I picked Mahomet as they are one of the more conservative areas of the county - and they had a contested election out there for of all things “Fire Trustee’s”. (I never heard radio advertising for such a race before this year.) All figures are from the County Clerks website.
Champaign 6 – 2008 Election
Total Registered Votes 1508
Total Voters 1143
Percentage who voted of whole 75%
Yes on Sales Tax 567 or 54%
No on Sales Tax 469 or 45%
Under votes on Sales Tax 94 or 8.2%
Champaign 6 – 2009 Election
Total Registered Votes 1479
Total Voters 323
Percentage who voted of whole 21%
Percentage of those who voted in 2008 28%
Yes on Sales Tax 197 or 62%
No on Sales Tax 121 or 38%
Under votes on Sales Tax 5 or 1.5%
Champaign 7 – 2008 Election
Total Registered Votes 2073
Total Voters 1634
Percentage who voted of whole 78%
Yes on Sales Tax 891 or 59%
No on Sales Tax 619 or 40%
Under votes on Sales Tax 105 or 6.4%
Champaign 7 – 2009 Election
Total Registered Votes 2094
Total Voters 409
Percentage who voted of whole 19%
Percentage of those who voted in 2008 25%
Yes on Sales Tax 283 or 69%
No on Sales Tax 126 or 31%
Under votes on Sales Tax 0 or 0%
Tolono 2 – 2008 Election
Total Registered Votes 760
Total Voters 579
Percentage who voted of whole 76%
Yes on Sales Tax 273 or 51%
No on Sales Tax 255 or 48%
Under votes on Sales Tax 41 or 7%
Tolono 2 – 2009 Election
Total Registered Votes 769
Total Voters 132
Percentage who voted of whole 17%
Percentage of those who voted in 2008 22%
Yes on Sales Tax 71 or 54%
No on Sales Tax 59 or 45%
Under votes on Sales Tax 2 or 1.5%
Mahomet 1 – 2008 Election
Total Registered Votes 1826
Total Voters 1408
Percentage who voted of whole 77%
Yes on Sales Tax 624 or 46%
No on Sales Tax 729 or 53%
Under votes on Sales Tax 41 or 2.9%
Mahomet 1 – 2009 Election
Total Registered Votes 1822
Total Voters 560
Percentage who voted of whole 30%
Percentage of those who voted in 2008 39%
Yes on Sales Tax 264 or 47%
No on Sales Tax 287 or 52%
Under votes on Sales Tax 9 or 1.6%
Mahomet 2 – 2008 Election
Total Registered Votes 1302
Total Voters 995
Percentage who voted of whole 76%
Yes on Sales Tax 404 or 42%
No on Sales Tax 545 or 57%
Under votes on Sales Tax 32 or 3.2%
Mahomet 2 – 2009 Election
Total Registered Votes 1305
Total Voters 448
Percentage who voted of whole 34%
Percentage of those who voted in 2008 45%
Yes on Sales Tax 212 or 47%
No on Sales Tax 234 or 52%
Under votes on Sales Tax 4 or .8%
Mahomet 3 – 2008 Election
Total Registered Votes 1287
Total Voters 806
Percentage who voted of whole 62%
Yes on Sales Tax 304 or 35%
No on Sales Tax 445 or 64%
Under votes on Sales Tax 56 or 5.7%
Mahomet 3 – 2009 Election
Total Registered Votes 1311
Total Voters 230
Percentage who voted of whole 17%
Percentage of those who voted in 2008 28%
Yes on Sales Tax 104 or 47%
No on Sales Tax 116 or 52%
Under votes on Sales Tax 10 or 4.38%
Mahomet 4 – 2008 Election
Total Registered Votes 1792
Total Voters 1427
Percentage who voted of whole 79%
Yes on Sales Tax 660 or 48%
No on Sales Tax 707 or 51%
Under votes on Sales Tax 48 or 3.3%
Mahomet 4 – 2009 Election
Total Registered Votes 1799
Total Voters 567
Percentage who voted of whole 31%
Percentage of those who voted in 2008 39%
Yes on Sales Tax 296 or 53%
No on Sales Tax 282 or 46%
Under votes on Sales Tax 5 or .9%
Mahomet 5 – 2008 Election
Total Registered Votes 1564
Total Voters 1206
Percentage who voted of whole 77%
Yes on Sales Tax 513 or 44%
No on Sales Tax 650 or 55%
Under votes on Sales Tax 34 or 2.8%
Mahomet 5 – 2009 Election
Total Registered Votes 1545
Total Voters 509
Percentage who voted of whole 32%
Percentage of those who voted in 2008 42%
Yes on Sales Tax 247 or 49%
No on Sales Tax 257 or 50%
Under votes on Sales Tax 5 or .9%
Thoughts on the above
Percentage of undercounts down across the area – more voters did understand the issue in 2009 then in 2009. I think that it shows that areas did a better job of getting their message out.