This is an interesting post, as it speculates that Illinois will lose another Congressional district after the 2012 Census.
After the 2000 Census, Illinois dropped from 20 to 19 Congressional districts, and Rep. David Phelps, a Democrat from the southern tip of Illinois, got the shaft, as his district was carved up between three different Congressional districts (the ones represented by Reps. Costello, Shimkus and our own Tim Johnson).
In Illinois, in 2002, immediately after redistricting, there was only one competitive Congressional District. It was the 19th in southern and central Illinois, where two incumbents, Representative John Shimkus and Representative David Phelps, were thrown together in a consolidated district. It was a district which by mutual agreement between the leaders of the congressional delegation of the two parties, favored the Republicans and Shimkus won handily, as expected.
According to most of the stories I've heard, Phelps was singled out because, among the other members of the Illinois delegation, he was the least "collegial." The other incumbents basically kicked out the "unpopular" kid, agreeing to map that protected themselves by giving most of Phelps' old district to Costello (12th District) and Shimkus (19th District), but which put Phelps' residence into Johnson's 15th district.
The new 15th District, for instance, covers a wide swath of central Illinois’ rich farmland, from Livingston County south through U.S. Rep. Tim Johnson’s home base in Urbana. It then hugs the eastern border of the state, hooking south just enough to capture U.S. Rep. David Phelp’s home in Eldorado at the northeast corner of Saline County...
Known throughout the vast rural stretches of his southern Illinois congressional district as a gospel performer, Phelps was singing a different tune last May. As negotiators struck a rare bipartisan deal on new district boundary lines, the socially conservative Democrat from a mining enclave at the edge of Saline County discovered the blues: He’d been chosen as the sacrificial lamb in the plan to cut the size of the delegation.
“The goal was to create districts that no one would have to lose,” says GOP remap point man Mike Stokke, a top aide to Hastert.
Phelps ran in 2002 against Shimkus and lost, and now works in the Blagojevich administration.
I assume that in 2012, the incumbent Congressmen of both parties will again come to some sort of agreement to protect themselves at the expense of one of their own. If there's an open seat due to retirement in 2012, it will be fairly painless to eliminate that district. But if not, I wonder which member/district will get the shaft.