Jason Barickman was unanimously re-elected as Chairman of the Champaign County Republican Party tonight.
Anybody have any updates from the Democrats' Convention?
UPDATE: Congratulations as well to Tony Fabri on being unanimously re-elected as Democratic Party Chair.
There are primaries today in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia. Latest polling data is here:
If Hillary loses all three by 15+ points, as the conventional wisdom is projecting, will she be able to survive, momentumless, until Ohio and Texas vote in early March?
If McCain wins winner-take-all Virginia, will Huckabee drop out?
Go ahead and make all the jokes you want about the state of the Illinois Republican Primary, as they've certainly earned it. But there's even more evidence against this meme that Illinois Republicans are leaving the party in droves to support Barack Obama. The total number of GOP ballots cast in Illinois:
1988 899,153
1990 805,381
1992 878,438
1994 729,372
1996 868,030
1998 759,102
2000 781,318
2002 946,339
2004 702,658
2006 751,627
2008 883,647
Clearly, Democratic turnout Tuesday was phenomenal. But the underlying reason is that they attracted a huge number of voters who normally don't vote in either Primary.
Will those voters vote Democratic in November? If Obama is the nominee - almost certainly.
For the rest of the ticket? Perhaps - it will depend on the race and the locality and the issues, etc. just as it does every other year. But it will also depend on how closely local and state candidates tie themselves to Obama if he is not the nominee.
And, of course, if Clinton somehow wins the nomination, then almost all those independent voters are completely up for grabs.
Tom Kacich's normally excellent Wednesday NG columns are usually not available online. However, today's column, discussing yesterday's results, is here:
It's the first time Democratic voters have outnumbered Republican voters in a primary election in the county in at least 70 years, if ever. Eight years ago, in the last presidential primary where there was no incumbent president on the ballot, Republican voters outnumbered Democrats, 21,308 to 11,762. The previous peak for Democratic primary voters was 17,110 in 1992. The Republican record is 21,308 in 2000.
Tuesday's overall turnout of 39,055 voters, including 173 Green Party voters, also was a record, improving on the previous high of nearly 34,000 voters in 2000.
Several precincts in the county ran short of Democratic ballots, and freshly printed sheets had to be rushed to the polls. A precinct in Savoy where four years ago Republicans outnumbered Democrats, 272-161, had the tables turned Tuesday. Democrats this time outpolled Republicans, 353-271.
The numbers he highlights point to the conclusion I drew here: yesterday's record Democratic turnout wasn't a result of Republicans pulling Democratic ballots as much as it was independents pulling Democratic ballots. Of course, that's still not much comfort to Republicans.
Kacich also touches on the Urbana Parks referendum and some other topics. Read the whole thing.
Quick table of turnout by precinct, with some thoughts below that.
You can view the it by clicking "read more" below. The table is too long otherwise.
Final unofficial numbers are here, indicating a total of 23,103 ballots cast in the Democratic Primary, and 15,484 in the Republican. The turnout for Democrats was huge, easily setting a record, and a few thousand higher than I thought it would be. Interestingly, there doesn't appear to have been a huge turnout on campus, so most of the new Democrat ballots were from first-time primary voters. I hope to have a precinct-by-precinct look at turnout later today.
On the GOP side, turnout obviously pales in comparison to the Democrats, but the total was the fourth-highest for a GOP Primary in Champaign County since 1990.
County Clerk Mark Shelden has a blog post asking for post-election feedback. Please be sure to tell him what you think, even if it's just a "Good job!"
From the NG:
State Rep. Shane Cultra probably wouldn't mind seeing every campaign conducted like the one he just completed with Champaign firefighter and Unit 4 school board President Dave Tomlinson as an opponent.
And not just because the Onarga businessman won handily in Tuesday's Republican primary for the 105th Illinois House District seat.
Cultra in an interview took time to compliment Tomlinson for sticking to issues in a campaign with nary any mud slung. Tomlinson, for his part, said he never considered doing it any other way.
"I just don't think it solves anything," he said.
1:40 PM: Might as well get this started. Mike Huckabee has won all 18 delegates from the West Virginia GOP convention. WV does not have a Primary or Caucus, but a convention:
Huckabee won in the second round of voting in West Virigina.
Romney picked up 41 percent of the vote in the first round, but failed to get the necessary 50 percent in the second round to win it.
The blogs are buzzing about a potential deal made between McCain supporters - who bombed the first round - and Huckabee delegates.
1:56 PM: I'm sure that it doesn't matter to anyone, but I will not be at Brookens tonight. Live blogging is still planned, absent any emergencies.
7:23 PM: Live-blogging from the couch, rather than at Brookens. Spending an evening trying to collect stool samples from a four-month-old put all of this in perspective, of course.
Early calls (read: blowouts): Illinois and Georgia for Obama, Oklahoma for Clinton. New Jersey, Connecticut and Illinois for McCain, Massachusetts for Romney. NJ and CT are big wins, as they are winner take all. As for the other states, I wonder why the networks even project winners in states like Illinois, where the delegate allocations are largely district-by-district. I'd love to see vote totals and exit polls for each Congressional District in Illinois, for example, to give some idea of the eventual delegate counts.
7:30 PM: Arkansas goes to Huckabee and Clinton. No surprise. Alabama has also been called for Huckabee.
7:41 PM: Champaign County results here. Nothing reported yet.
Illinois results here. Also nothing reported yet.
7:45 PM: If these early, leaked Democratic exit polls are accurate, then Obama clobbered Clinton today. If.
7:47 PM: More early national exit polling, for Republicans. Notice that there have already been at least one state (Delaware) called in contradiction to its exit polls, which is just further reinforcement of how exit polls are for entertainment purposes only.
8:12 PM: Lots of chatter in both blogospheres about shoddy exit polls. Deleware has already been called for McCain, though the exits said Romney would win it. I wonder if any of these states called as their polls closed based solely on exit polling are going to get pulled back later.
8:15 PM: Still no local results, but at this point I'm willing to make an early call based on exit polling in one crucial race: in Cunningham 23, IP.com is now willing to project that Gordy Hulten will be elected Republican Precinct Committeeman, based on a exit poll sample of one voter. :-)
8:22 PM: McCain projected winner of all of New York's delegates. Expected, but still a huge number of delegates.
8:24 PM: Full Illinois exit polls for Democrats and Republicans.
8:45 PM: Massachusetts just called for Clinton, in contradiction to its exit polling. Clinton is up 21 percent there, with 45 percent reporting. Huge upset win for Clinton, IMO.
Still nothing locally.
9:27 PM: Local results are starting to trickle in. With 24 precincts reporting:
9:42 PM: Note of interest: with almost none of the rural/GOP precincts reporting, and with some campus precincts in, Dem ballots outnumber Republican ballots about 5-3. I still think the Dems will break 20,000 ballots, easily setting a record.
9:45 PM: To put those Urbana Park District results in context, the following ten Cunninham precincts are in: 2, 3, 7, 8, 13, 16, 18, 20, 23 and Urbana 4. I suspect, given the 17 precincts still still out there, that it will end up passing. I hope not, though.
9:46 PM: the three contested GOP Congressional Primaries in Illinois appear to be settled enough to say that Balderman, Oberweis and Schock will win those nominations. Schock is getting over 70 percent in a three-way race so far.
9:49 PM: Quick thoughts, while there's a break in the returns:
9:55 PM: 38 precincts reporting in Champaign County:
10:03 PM: I should really be putting the latest updates at the top. I'll start a new post.
One way or another, I'll be live-blogging both national and local election results tonight. I had planned on being at Brookens, but may not be able to make it there, so I may just work from home.
For local results, the Champaign County Clerk's website is usually pretty close to up-to-date. I'll post a direct link when they put it up.
For national results, I like Politico.com, but there are hundreds of choices.
I'm surprised nobody is asking for my predictions. :-)
UPDATE: For a summary of which states are voting today, and how they award their delegates, go here.
One would think that a candidate, running for President in the 21st Century, whose entire candidacy has had a narrative of transparent pandering and astonishing position changes, would know better than to attempt a naked pander and position change on an absolutely fundamental issue, in a very public forum, the weekend before the largest Primary Election in American history.
But not Mitt Romney, who used a podcast on one of the center-right's most widely read blogs to absolutely contradict his previous positions on gun control. As Instapundit says, in response: "I'm beginning to question [Romney's] sincerity."
Longtime readers will know that I'm no fan of John McCain. But I really do think that Romney is convinced that he's so smart and that we're so stupid that he can get away will stuff like this. He's our Bill Clinton. I really do have a hard time understanding how anyone can take anything he says seriously.
Sad.
Over $50 million for a single delegate.
As the LA Times notes, that's the worst dollar for delegate record in American presidential history. The previous winner was John Connally who spent $11 million for a single delegate in 1980.
And at that rate Rudy would have needed $60 billion to win the nomination.
From Rasmussen:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain earning 34% of the vote while Romney is eight points behind at 26%. The survey was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, finishing just before results from Florida’s Presidential Primary were known. Mike Huckabee finished a distant third at 16%.
Since the poll was completed, Rudy Giuliani has withdrawn from the race and endorsed McCain. America’s Mayor had picked up 9% of the Illinois vote in the poll.
Illinois elects delegates directly within each Congressional District, and the Presidential Preference vote is meaningless, so I'm not sure how much this means.
Consistent with my prediction of a Romney victory, John McCain has won the Florida Republican Primary.
Rudy is in third at the moment, and is giving an extraordinarily classy concession speech. He's expected to drop out as soon as tomorrow, and endorse McCain. His campaign has been such a disappointment.
Ron Paul is at three percent in the returns I'm watching. I guess the Revolution hasn't started quite yet, and maybe his supporters' habit of being as insulting and antagonistic as possible is being reflected in the returns.
Prediction for tonight: Romney edges McCain by five
As much as I'd love to jinx Romney by predicting that he wins, I really do think he's going to win Florida's Primary.
Of course, I've gotten every Primary wrong so far this year, so take it for what little it's worth.
| Democratic | Republican | Green | Nonpartisan | |
| 1990 | 4,765 | 18,127 | 245 | |
| 1992 | 17,110 | 12,949 | 30 | |
| 1994 | 10,559 | 12,897 | 1,296 | |
| 1996 | 6,498 | 13,710 | ||
| 1998 | 8,276 | 12,738 | ||
| 2000 | 11,762 | 21,308 | 781 | |
| 2002 | 9,924 | 18,552 | 163 | |
| 2004 | 11,945 | 14,111 | 136 | |
| 2006 | 7,196 | 14,332 | 46 | 1,121 |
Edit: Sorry about the formatting. We'll try to get it fixed.
This chart is the turnout for each the parties since 1990 in the primary elections. High turnout has generally been the result of local races of interest. For example, in 2000 Tim Johnson was squaring off against Bill Brady for Congress. We also had a hotly contested judicial primary on the Republican side. In 2002 Bob Steigman was facing Rita Garman. 1990 had a contest for judge and a bunch of committeemen contests.
For the Democrats, the most notable election is 1992 when there was a primary between Laurel Prussing and David Thies for State Rep. That was also the "Year of the Woman" and Carol Moseley Braun knocked off Alan Dixon that year.
But for evidence that nonlocal races don't necessarily drive turnout, look at the 1994 Democratic primary that was hotly contested by Dick Phelan, Roland Burris, and the pool shooting straight shooter Dawn Clark Netsch.
This year, Republicans nationwide seem unenthusiastic, so even the fact that the race is up in the air, the turnouts have not been high across the country. On the Democratic side, Illiois might be the only state where the winner is perceived as a given. It's hard to imagine either of the leading Democratic candidates coming here. With no television ads, few local races, and few referenda, its hard to guess just how many people will show up to vote.
One final point. The weather may play a role next Tuesday. Right now the forecast is rain, but I'm sure that forecast won't hold for long.
Anyone want to throw out a guess for turnout?
Also from the NG this weekend:
For the first time in eight years, the state's most Republican House district has a contest.
The GOP primary for the 105th District seat pits third-term incumbent Shane Cultra, an Onarga businessman, against a political newcomer, Champaign firefighter and Unit 4 school board President Dave Tomlinson. Whoever wins will likely be unopposed in November, as there are no Democratic primary candidates.
Rich Miller had some polling for his subscribers last week that had this race at 52.4 percent for Cultra and 6.5 percent for Tomlinson.
The 105th District:
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch released this yesterday:
Democrats:
Republicans:
There's a also a poll of state issues which was released today, including new approval and job performance numbers for Gov. Blagojevich.
Food for thought this morning:
WASHINGTON (AP) - Don't look to crown any presidential nominees on Super Tuesday. The race for delegates is so close in both parties that it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis of the states in play that day.
"A lot of people were predicting that this presidential election on both sides was going to be this massive sprint that ended on Feb. 5," said Jenny Backus, a Democratic consultant who is not affiliated with any candidate. Now it's looking as if the primaries after Super Tuesday - including such big, delegate-rich states as Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania - could grow in importance.
"Maybe some states were better off waiting," said Backus.
That doesn't mean Super Tuesday won't be super after all. Voters in more than 20 states will go to the polls on the biggest day of the primary campaign, and thousands of delegates will be at stake.
But it's possible Feb. 5 might not even produce clear front-runners.
Having a good ballot name can go a long way to winning an election. This isn't just cynicism on my part. It's been borne out in recent Illinois political history. In our area a great example was the Democratic Primary for Congress in 1992 when party favorite Mark Weisbrot (now with a Washington think tank) lost to Charles Mattis. While Weisbrot won handily in Champaign County and had more money and organization, he wasn't able to offset the votes received by Mattis throughout the rest of the district. It was hard to find much of a reason for the loss other than the unCentral Illinois sound to the Weisbrot name.
More famous, and with far more impact, was the 1986 Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor. George Sangmeister, a State Senator from Will County faced off against Lyndon LaRouche supporter Mark Fairchild. There probably wasn't a single Democratic elected official in the state that didn't support Sangmeister, to the point that the party organization never really worked the election. On election night, the wacko with the nice name, Mark Fairchild, beat Sangmeister. Adlai Stevenson, faced with the choice of being on the ticket with Fairchild or running as a third party, decided on the latter. It killed the Democrats that year as Jim Thompson crushed Stevenson.
After receiving yet another question today from a Republican about who to vote for in the race for U.S. Senator, I'm very concerned that we might end up with another Fairchild on our ticket. Steve Sauerberg is the Republican establshment choice for U.S. Senate. Andy Martin, aka Anthony Martin Trigona, is on the ballot as well, along with Mike Psak. Martin/Trigona has a long history of bizarre behavior, running as a candidate for various offices with both the Democratic and Republican parties and suing everyone in sight.
Sauerberg is relatively unknown outside of party circles. Are we setting ourselves up for the nice sounding Andy Martin to be our candidate against Dick Durbin?
By the way, that straw poll widget over on the right resets every Sunday, so if you haven't voted this week, you can vote again.
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