Surprisingly, the bloggers and media haven’t picked up on the enthusiasm of state Senator Dan Rutherford’s formal announcement that he’s running for Secretary of State. I was in Pontiac Monday night during Dan’s announcement and could feel the excitement build in the room as Rutherford proclaimed, “We can do this!” It’s true, Jesse will be hard to beat, but I seriously doubt he’s looking forward to running against Dan Rutherford in November 2006.
Rather than join the immediate nay-sayers, I’ll chime in with my two cents on how Rutherford can win.
Jesse White factors
Is Jesse in? Most assume so. Heck, he had campaign shirts that read “102 Counties” at Democrat Day at the State Fair. But I’ve yet to see his formal campaign announcement and until I do, I’m convinced there’s a chance he gracefully bows out. Jesse’s 71-years-old (72 by the next election) and has to have thoughts of “enough’s enough”. He knows the battle he’s in for against Dan Rutherford. Is his health up to it? Is the current SOS office clean enough to avoid the tentacles of U.S. Attorney Pat Fitzgerald? Does Jesse have the fire in the belly anymore?
Jim Edgar factor
If Jim Edgar runs (that’s a big “if”), the Republican ticket in 2006 is – to say the least – a great bet. Please see 1994 for an example.
Rod Blagojevich factor
Rod Blagojevich’s popularity is tanking. The entire Illinois Democratic Party has to wonder how hard his negativity will impact them. White, although not close to Blagojevich, is not immune.
The issues
Rutherford dominates on the issues. Dan will listen to people’s complaints about the SOS office and provide meaningful and cost-efficient solutions. Everyone has had a negative experience with a local SOS office – long lines, lack of technology, lost renewal stickers in the mail – Dan’s job is to turn these problems into reasons to support his candidacy.
Other considerations
Rutherford will have no primary. He’s built an outstanding base of support, and it’s hard to imagine another credible Republican running against him. That aside, who would want to run against White if they actually beat Rutherford?!
For all its difficulties and factions, the Illinois Republican Party is absolutely, 100% united behind Dan Rutherford.
Dan Rutherford factors
I cannot imagine a stronger grassroots organization than Rutherford is building (and, for the most part, has already built). His pool of campaign volunteers will easily stretch into the thousands. Jesse won't win 102 counties against Rutherford. Taking a county-by-county approach, Dan stacks up well against White. While White's assured victory in Chicago/Cook, the real question is how big are the margins? Does the Chicago machine give Jesse enough votes to trump Dan's flawless operation throughout the other 101 counties?
Rutherford’s fiscal conservativeness drives his campaign staff nuts, but will pay huge dividends for him. Even if White can generate more campaign funds, Dan can stretch $1 into $4, if not more.
Finally, Dan is – and we all know it – a tireless worker. He answers every e-mail, returns every phone call and absolutely runs a flawless constituent services program. Who wouldn’t want him handling the service office of state government?
Conclusion
There’s potential for a great deal of negative response to this post. I agree – it’s not going to be easy. I’m just not ready to write Dan off quite yet. He’s spent his life preparing for this campaign, and if Jesse’s going to beat him, he’s going to have to work for it.