I was in Springfield yesterday and one topic that came up was Democratic State Treasurer candidate Alexander Giannoulias.  The question is whether the dirt coming out will result in Alexi making an alexit from the race.
I don't doubt that it could happen. Certainly, Barack Obama would love to see that. No one has a bigger stake in Alexi dropping out than Obama. (Favorite Obama quote on Alexi: "One of the most outstanding young men I could ever hope to meet.") Mike Madigan also wouldn't mind seeing him off the ticket. It would give him an excellent chance to find someone for the ticket that doesn't have D-Chicago next to his name. He wanted a downstater in the first place, but his candidate, Paul Mangieri lost the primary. An alexit would logically place Mangieri on the ticket, who resides a whopping 40 miles south of Interstate-80, Illinois' version of the Mason-Dixon line. This makes Mangieri a southerner to people in Cook County and a downstater to the rest of us.
But this won't be simple for the Democratic leadership.
First, this differs from the Jack Ryan withdrawal.  Jack Ryan had a problem that was personally embarrassing. He had an incentive to drop off the ticket to prevent six months of stories about sex clubs. Giannoulias appears to have some politically embarrassing items, but nothing that will cause him to cringe when he shows up at the country club.
Second, there isn't anything Madigan or Obama can offer Giannoulias. He's a multimillionaire. A case can be made by Giannoulias that the embarrassment of dropping off the ticket would be much greater than the embarrassment of hearing about his loan portfolio for the next six months.
Third, while Obama must really want him off the ticket, Madigan's interest isn't as great. On balance it's better, but if Giannoulias doesn't drop off, Madigan still has a candidate who is willing to self fund his campaign to the tune of millions of dollars. Giannoulias has also somehow endeared himself to the black community.  Replacing him with another white male might cause the Democrats more trouble with the black community than it's worth.
Depsite these problems, Giannoulias is no sure loser in the fall. Christine Radogno has her work cut out for her regardless of what the Dems do.