If you were an investor now, would you invest? You would be a dummy if you did, because you should wait to let the GOVERNMENT pick the winners and losers. But even if the GOVERNMENT decides to throw some money at an industry, you would be a dummy to invest. You shouldn’t invest long term money in a place where the GOVERNMENT offers only a short term fix. Care to buy some Chrysler stock?
A dummy needs to understand what will grow an economy and what will not. A dummy may not understand why it is better to invest in business than in government, so I will try, in a dummy sort of way, to explain it.
Banks use money to make loan to businesses and consumers. A business exists for one purpose only, and that is to make a profit. The fishermen in Christ’s time invested in capital equipment such as boats, nets, and tributes to Caesar, hired junior fisherman who they paid a wage, and went out and fished. They then took their catch back and sold it, and from the money they received they bought nets, boats, and paid the junior fisherman whom they employed.
Because banks were not there to lend money, fishermen often formed partnerships. Someone who owned boats, but was too old to fish, contributed his boats and nets and managed the sales. It took a while, but eventually everyone figured out a better form of partnership which was called the corporation. This allowed many partners to share in the profits of the business. There is nothing inherently wrong with making a profit, for that is the purpose of all business whether in Christ’s time or ours.
If a junior fisherman wanted to get into the fishing business, there are two ways he could do it. He could set money aside from his wages and save up and buy nets and boats or he could borrow money and start the process sooner. Recall the parable about the master who gave a different amount of money (talents) to his executives to invest. Even Christ approved of prudent investing, and Christ was no dummy.
The only difference between the "master" and a bank is that a bank is bigger and has more owners (stock holders) Bank’s get money to lend from essentially three sources: the ownership interests that they sell to people who want to own bank stock, money from depositors, and money that the banks borrow from the federal bank. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulates the way that potential investors invest in banks. The federal government through the FDIC insures accounts to keep depositors from making "runs on the bank". The federal government through the interest rate it charges encourages or discourages commerce. It is through these interest rate increases or decreases that the "fed" attempts to provide a small slow, but steady growth in our economy. If the "fed" constantly was making large interest rate changes, businesses could not make long term plans for their businesses because those plans would change dramatically with every rate change that GOVERNMENT made.
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What led to our current crisis is that GOVERNMENT lost control of our banking system. In other words, the GOVERNMENT, through the laws it enacted and the regulations it created to implement its policy, lost control of the banking system. Our banking system is like a hospital. It is the primary way that we fix a sick patient. Unless we repair our hospital, we will have no hope of taking care of all the sick patients that we will be seeing during this economic downturn. But before we fix the hospital (the banking system) we need to understand why it needed fixing
Now this system works fine if banks are doing banking, but our politicians decided to allow car companies to merge banking and manufacturing functions. When the manufacturing side could not compete because of the union wages it paid, the stock of the company dropped dramatically because the companies were essentially their own banks which were being dragged down by their manufacturing expense. It is the same reason that the Tribune Company wanted to spin off the CUBS.. If the only control GOVERNMENT has is through incentives, it became much more difficult to help the auto industry because banking and manufacturing had merged together. But make no mistake, it was the legislature and its regulations that allowed this. Banking and manufacturing were always separate until a very few years ago.
The very same thing happened in the housing market. GOVERNMENT got involved again. There are two main factors in every lending decision. (1) How much profit will be made from the deal? (2) What is the risk after default? Let’s examine profit first.
The amount you sell or the amount of interest you are paid is called your gross income. From this you subtract your expenses such as wages, cost of maintaining depreciable assets, supplies, utilities, taxes, etc. What you have left is your profit which corporations distribute to shareholders who own stock. Let’s not employ class envy, because most of these shares are held in retirement accounts of people like you and me-(mutual funds). If the GOVERNMENT can control winners and losers by deciding not to pay its medical providers or taxing the hell out of its product (tobacco), then the bottom line-its net profit-is effected and people will not buy its stock. In the case of the auto industry it was the high cost of its unionized labor that left it unable to compete with Toyota and Honda..
The second factor, is the risk after default. If I lend you money to buy land and you are not able to pay me back, I foreclose on the land, sell it, and repay myself as much as the collateral will bring. If the collateral sells for an amount greater than the loan, there is a surplus which will be given back to the borrower. Land won’t go anywhere and will not have wild fluctuations in value like you will with a car. Some assets the government will allow you to depreciate over longer periods of time. Land cannot be depreciated at all.
A second factor determining risk is the ability of the borrower to repay. This has nothing to do with recouping money from the collateral. If I reposes and sell a car after default, I can still sue you for a deficiency from that loan. If you have other assets that I can reach to repay the loan, I can go after those.
The interest rate is a function of income and default is a function of expense. The risk of default is usually determined by a credit score. The lower the credit score the higher the interest rate that a borrower will pay. You have to consider both of these factors together to decide whether one business makes more profit than another. The claim that a loan is usurious can only be considered after taking into account the risk of default. If half your loan portfolio is in default, you will have to charge extremely high "juice" to make a profit.
In a free market system like we have, it is the free market that should determine the winners and losers, not the GOVERNMENT. If every business is out there to make as much profit as it can, business people will make business decisions. If they can make more money selling ice Eskimos than they can make selling some other product, that is what they will do.
We will take a brief aside for a moment here and explain the difference between the parties on the stimulus package. The Republicans suggest that GOVERNMENT should not pick winners and losers in a free market economy. To do so will keep investors on the side line, because risks cannot be determined in a free market manner. When risk cannot be determined in a free market manner, the business community has no demand for the money. Since there is no demand for the money, you cannot stimulate business, only government.
So let’s return to the housing crises to examine what happened there. Banks are in the business of servicing loans. If the government wants a bank to do something, it does so through incentives. It lowers the interest rates that the bank can borrow from the fed is one way. If a bank can borrow money at 1% and lend it out at 3% it will make a 2% profit which is the motive of every business. But if the fed offers money to banks at 1% and there is no one out there willing to borrow because they have no incentive to do so, then it does not matter how low the interest rate. The supply of money is there, but there is no demand for it.
In the case of the housing drop, government got involved to help determine supply, demand, profit and expense. It determined the supply of money by encouraging Freddy Mac and Fanny May to make loans to sub prime borrowers. It determined the demand for these loans by offering prime rates for sub prime borrowers. If you normally would have had to pay 13% interest to get a loan, you will make a lot more loans if you offer this group loans at 7%.
The GOVERNMENT changed supply and demand by changing the ratio between loan to value. Now instead of requiring 20% down to obtain a 7% loan, the GOVERNMENT required nothing down to get a 7% loan. In other words, the government was loaning 100% of the value of the asset. If the asset became worth less than the amount owed, many people walked away through bankruptcy which also aided these sub prime borrowers through bankruptcy judges who also should have read this paper. I acted as a trustee, debtor’s attorney, and creditor’s attorney over the years. When I represented a debtor with a car who had to make a reaffirmation decision, I would always ask them whether it was in their best interest to reaffirm a debt for $10,000 when the car was only worth $7500.
The GOVERNMENT also messed with the profit and expense of the bank. In other words, it gave the banks profit and expense incentives to encourage the banks to execute the policy that the GOVERNMENT wanted. The profit of the banks were fixed from the beginning because they were guaranteed by the GOVERNMENT. The GOVERNMENT approved each Fanny and Freddy loan. The GOVERNMENT also told the banks when to foreclose, whether to object to bankruptcy plans, and controlled every step in the process. After the loans were made, the banks were just servicing agents for the GOVERNMENT. The next person to suggest culpability of the banks in this should get a cream pie right in the face. And if the borrower could not pay, the government had to pick up the tab. Thus the banks avoided expense in their bottom line. Thus GOVERNMENT (not the President) was totally responsible for the problem.
So the solution is not more government regulation. The solution is to go back to sound business practice which means that the government needs to keep its hands out of the soup.
What happened in the great depression is a good example of government in action. The depression continued for 6 years after Roosevelt took office. To suggest that Hoover was the cause of the depression and that Roosevelt fixed the problem is a historical myth. Roosevelt was a liberal whose policies kept us in the depression until he finally obtained the excuse he needed to get us out of the depression which was WWII.
Spending projects (like TVA) will not pull you out a financial downturn very quickly. There is a simple dummy reason for that. When a bank lends money to a junior fisherman, the junior fisherman becomes a senior fisherman who hires other junior fisherman and the cycle repeats itself. When a bank lends money to someone to build a dam (TVA), that project ends when the dam is built. Also you will notice that the business itself does not pay taxes (TVA), but the fishermen do. This is the reason why we should stimulate the economy (the free market), not government.





